I originally wanted to stay up late to watch Powell's press conference, but then I thought an old dog can't come up with new tricks, so I might as well get a good night's sleep (this is just for show, the truth is I'm just too tired). Most of the anticipated scenarios have materialized: 1. The Federal Reserve lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected, totaling three cuts of 25 basis points each this year, amounting to 75 basis points in total. 2. It's very rare to have three dissenting votes; Milan opposed the 25 basis point cut because he wanted a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points, while the other two felt that rates shouldn't be lowered at all. 3. Perhaps feeling that the market wouldn't buy into his hawkish comments at this time and with Hasset hedging, Powell hinted at pausing rate cuts, but it was more dovish than expected. However, as quoted, Powell's dovish tone can only lead to a brief cheer from the stock market, which isn't good news for the bond market. 4. Aside from the three expected points, it was quite surprising that they have already restarted bond purchases, planning to buy back $40 billion over the next 30 days, which is earlier than anticipated. This measure offsets the potential declines, so U.S. Treasuries are currently relatively stable. 5. The most critical point is the dot plot, which is dovish, showing one rate cut in 2026, one in 2027, and no change in 2028. Compared to the dot plot from September, one more person believes rates should be increased in 2026, two fewer believe rates should remain unchanged, two more believe rates should be cut, the number advocating for two cuts remains at four, three for three cuts remains the same, and one fewer believes there should be four cuts, while one person believes there should be six cuts. Although the overall neutral rate remains unchanged, the situation indicates a significant split within the Federal Reserve, possibly the largest rift in 37 years. Three opposed the rate cut, while seven advocated for no cuts or even more cuts, indicating that the committee lacks a consensus. In this state, it may be difficult for the Federal Reserve to continue easing in the short term. After the pandemic, long-term rates have moved from 2.5% to 3%, and the era of low rates may have completely ended. The future neutral rate is likely to be 3%, which means that even in normal economic times, mortgage rates and corporate bond yields will find it hard to return to previous lows. Overall, this FOMC is essentially playing a balancing act, soothing inflation concerns with hawkish rhetoric about pausing rate cuts while using RMP (Reserve Management Program) invisible QE to ease the liquidity demands of the financial market.