This can be considered one of the more resolute voices calling for a bearish outlook in this round. Before the interest rate cut in September, I publicly cleared half of my large cryptocurrency positions, and after the rate cut, I cleared the remaining positions. Throughout this period, I have been posting and advising my friends not to try to catch the bottom. Today, let's talk about when I plan to buy the dip. First of all, I am pessimistic about the capital markets this year. Although the U.S. is cutting interest rates, it is clear that this cut is very restrained, and the process of balance sheet reduction should continue after the new Federal Reserve chair takes office. What is the reason? Because there is simply too much money. I don't know if everyone has thought about a question: why are gold and U.S. stocks rising simultaneously? And both have risen so much? If you graduated with a finance degree or have taken a few finance classes, your textbook should have taught you that gold is a negative beta asset, and its correlation with equity assets should be negative (in a healthy inflation environment, capital will first go to cash-flow-generating equity assets, which is why gold has not outperformed U.S. stocks in the past two to three decades). But there is too much money, and the dollar is depreciating. Global risk-averse funds are fleeing the dollar into gold, while AI technological innovation continues to drive U.S. stocks, with dollar-risk capital flowing into stocks (this disconnection phenomenon was also mentioned in Ray Dalio's annual letter released a few days ago). The Federal Reserve's primary concern is certainly the currency, and the process of maintaining the currency is destined to withdraw liquidity. Therefore, I do not believe that liquidity will improve this year; rather, the process of withdrawing liquidity may puncture the AI bubble, which is uncertain. So based on the premise that "liquidity will not be good this year," combined with the four-year cycle, I continue to see a bearish outlook this year. When will I buy the dip and build long-term positions? 1. I want to see absolute large turnover trading volume in the secondary market (Capitulation Volume), usually triggered by one or two large players blowing up, which has occurred at the absolute bottoms in the past two cycles. 2. I want to see the MVRV-Z score drop to at least 0 (the most important indicator I look at for buying long-term positions, which is essentially a long-term oversold indicator). Last round it dropped to -0.36, the round before that to -0.48, and today this number is 0.77. 3. I want to see capitulation events (the last round's FTX and the round before that’s BCH fork are standard "BTC capitulation" events). Just like six months ago, no one thought BTC would go to over 70k. Now saying it will go to 40k is still premature, but preparing for the worst-case scenario, a further drop of 40-50% is not impossible. The market will reveal itself, and if the above three conditions are met, I will also go all in.