Today, I discussed the current market with my Partner, and there is an interesting point that many people have overlooked. The market generally expects Warsh to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and because everyone has dug up his past videos and speeches, they have directly labeled him as a "hawkish" figure. However, I do not completely agree with this assessment. If Warsh really chooses to continue tapering and even insists on not lowering interest rates in the short term, it will create a structural conflict with @realDonaldTrump's current policy goals. The reason is simple: The current high interest expenses of the U.S. government have become one of Trump's biggest headaches. The cost of interest directly squeezes fiscal space, leading to limited budget allocations and the repeated risk of government shutdowns. In this situation, if monetary policy continues to maintain high interest rates, it will only further hinder his ability to advance any substantial policies. Another noteworthy signal is: Recently, Trump has almost stopped publicly "calling shots" or intervening in market expectations, instead choosing to handle things coolly, quietly watching the market decline. I tend to believe that this is a deliberate cooling of the market, to deleverage and reduce risk, releasing the bubbles and excessive expectations first. In this context, I believe: In February and March, the Federal Reserve is very likely not to lower interest rates, and the purpose is not to "turn hawkish," but to lay the groundwork for the policy space after Warsh takes office. If this timeline holds, then a more reasonable scenario is: February and March: hold steady, the market continues to be under pressure April: Warsh officially takes office, and his first move after taking office is to lower interest rates, leading to a corrective rebound in the financial market. So from a strategic perspective, the next two months are not an offensive window, but a survival window. Maintaining positions and managing emotions are more important than judging the direction.