Two things can be true at the same time: 1. AI tools *are* making devs more productive 2. This productivity change is invisible from the outside - now Take the story of two bricklayers: one of them building the wall by hand, the other constructing a brick laying machine...

In this story, the first bricklayer glances over and sees the other bricklayer's wall not even started. They are smug, knowing they finish building their wall first. But then once the second bricklayer finishes their machine, they build walls several times faster vs the first...

So yes, from the outside a lot of companies that say they see productivity increases won't see much different output. A lot of that increase goes into churning over temporary tooling (building new stuff), new infra, figuring out how to change their workflows etc But once they will be done: very hard to catchup for anyone that sat idle assuming "it doesn't work"

Also, don't forget that a LOT of new AI product work is invisible - for well-managed teams! Here's a story from @craftdocs who added 0 new features for ~a year while 25% of their team worked on AI features - but never shipped them! Until they did...