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Jonah Lupton
星期五下午,$TMDX 提交了一份 Form4,顯示他們的創始人(Waleed)購買了價值 200 萬美元的股票。
就在幾分鐘前,$FOUR 提交了一份 Form4,顯示他們的創始人(Jared)在過去兩個交易日購買了價值 1630 萬美元的股票。
今天 $TMDX 上漲了 11.1%。
讓我們看看 $FOUR 明天在這個消息下會有什麼表現。
FWIW,我在過去一周將我的 $FOUR 持倉增加了約 60%。
$FOUR 現在是我第三大持倉,僅次於 $TMDX 和 $APP。
$FOUR 在過去一年中進行了幾次收購,我相信這些收購在未來幾年會帶來回報。這些交易不僅幫助他們擴展到數十個新市場(通過 GlobalBlue),還使他們接觸到超過 400,000 家商戶。
$FOUR 不僅在中位數成長率中有機增長,還進行了增值的併購,並在未來幾年內與這些新商戶有巨大的交叉銷售/升級銷售機會。
自第二季度財報以來,$FOUR 的價格已經變得過於便宜。
即使你使用他們的完全稀釋股數並包括現金/債務,企業價值也在約 90 億美元左右。
我相信 $FOUR 明年至少會實現 13 億美元的 EBITDA,甚至可能達到 14 億美元。
這意味著 $FOUR 可能以低於 7 倍 2026 年的企業價值/EBITDA 交易,這對於中位數成長率的有機增長加上增值的併購、成本協同效應以及將這些新商戶納入他們的全套產品(硬體、軟體、支付)來說,簡直是瘋狂。
$TOST 是一家增長率更好的優秀公司,但他們在銷售和市場推廣上的支出也高得多,而 $FOUR 則在利用他們的現金/債務/股票進行增值的併購。
$TOST 目前以 30 倍 2026 年的企業價值/EBITDA 交易,這與 $FOUR 的 7 倍 2026 年的企業價值/EBITDA 相比,似乎真的很貴。
我認為 $FOUR 在當前價格下是最具吸引力的金融科技公司,應該成為這一倍數的收購目標。
如果我在這裡漏掉了什麼,隨時可以糾正我... @rookisaacman @TomSmith839 @jevgenijs @BourbonCap @MMMTwealth @FundasyInvestor @cp_option @SanCompounding 或任何其他密切關注 $FOUR 的人。
謝謝你的閱讀 :)

21.4K
隨著 $TMDX 的季節性疲弱即將結束,他們在過去兩天平均每天進行 37 次航班。預計在第三季度下半段會有更多大型航班日,然後在第四季度會有強勁表現。
我仍然預測在 2025 年的營收將超過 6.3 億美元,2026 年的營收將超過 8.2 億美元。
我認為 $TMDX 在 2025 年的每股收益(eps)將達到 2.70 到 3.00 美元,在 2026 年的每股收益將達到 4.20 到 4.60 美元。
根據我對 2025/2026 年每股收益的預測中點,$TMDX 目前的交易價格是 2026 年每股收益的 26 倍,今年每股收益增長 180%,明年每股收益增長 55%。
$TMDX 在當前價格下被低估了 40-50%。
$TMDX 在接下來的 12-18 個月內有 100% 的上漲潛力。
仍然是我最大的持倉,並且不打算在短期內減持。

Jonah Lupton8月1日 04:02
As many of you know, $TMDX had another very strong earnings report yesterday afternoon. Revenues up 10% QoQ and 38% YoY however it was the earnings that really crushed it... with EPS up 31% QoQ and 163% YoY.
Two best things about the Q2 earnings report was net income margins coming in 22% vs 10% a year ago and the fact they raised full year guidance from 30% to 35%.
July flight data was soft (just like last year) but I fully expect August and September to be better followed by a very strong Q4 (just like last year).
The fact that $TMDX raised guidance means they also expect the last 5 months of the year to be strong and knowing how Waleed thinks, they will probably raise again with Q3 earnings and then beat that number by 3-5% so I fully expect $TMDX will do $630M+ for the full year which is 43% YoY.
$TMDX has already started getting approvals on OCS 2.0 trials which could start in Q4 however $TMDX management said none of those revenues were included in the new guidance.
Through the first half of the year $TMDX has net income margins of 20.1%, coming into the year analysts were looking for around 12% so it's been a huge upside surprise.
if $TMDX can maintain 20% NIMs through the back half of the year, then they could do $3.70 in eps for the full year. Coming into Q2 earnings the analysts were looking for $1.70 for the full year so $TMDX might beat that number by more than 100%, just like they beat Q2 eps estimates by 114%
This means, even with $TMDX up 11.4% today, the stock might only be trading at 32x 2025 eps with eps going 266% YoY (they did $1.01 eps last year)
Looking forward, with several important tailwinds, I think $TMDX could do another 30% revenues next year depending on size of trials and revenues from European expansion (Europe is 45% of global organ transplant market) and I think net income margins could expand another 150 bps to 21.5% (assuming they finish this year around 20%) which would put non-GAAP eps in 2026 at approx $5.15 per share which means $TMDX might only be trading at 23x 2026 eps
Very possible my numbers are too conservative because $TMDX continues to surprise me over and over again with their execution and efficiency.
$TMDX is still my largest position and I added to it yesterday before the close at $106 and then AH at $114 and again today on the morning dip.
My conviction has never been stronger and I firmly believe $TMDX will be a $250 stock in the next 12-18 months as they continue to execute at a high level.
Also worth nothing $TMDX still has a 24% short interest so it's possible the shorts will need to start covering their 8M shares (8 days to cover)
96.7K
恭喜所有 $RDDT 的股東……這是一個驚人的季度和驚人的指引。
3 個月前 $RDDT 預測第二季度收入為 4.2 億美元,第二季度 EBITDA 為 1.2 億美元。他們最終報告的數字分別為 5 億美元和 1.67 億美元。第三季度的指引同樣令人印象深刻。
每位分析師都需要提高他們對 2025/2026 年的預測和 12 個月的價格目標。
$RDDT 現在是我第三大持倉,僅次於 $TMDX 和 $APP。
根據我對未來 12 個月的預測,$RDDT 的公允價值為 232 美元,這對於一家年增長率達 78% 且 EBITDA 利潤率為 33% 的公司來說是保守的,該公司將繼續超越預期並提高預測。
非常看好這次的財報電話會議,對於 $RDDT 來說,產品改進和通過廣告及數據授權實現用戶變現仍然處於早期階段……此外,國際擴張是未開發的增長空間。
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