Lots of terrific insights below. Here is what sticks to me: SVB blew up 3/10/2023. PMIs as a proxy for eco data only bottomed 8/23. The market didn't wait for the data to improve, it moved on before that. This is my scenario 2 in my note yesterday, where market leads.

Equities are either telling you the NFP & stagflationary ISM don't matter (because of rate cuts) or that it's old news and the economy has improved and that will be reflected in future reports. Can't tell you which one it is and am comfortably neutral watching it.

Nice, steady trend. Momentum strong, not overbought. Stay long.

Something that was not talked about much last week was the surge in job openings for tech. Tech CAPEX is enormous, and look at MSFT cloud revenues as to see the enormous scale for tech demand. It didn't show up as tech job gains in NFP, but maybe it will ahead.

Panic at the Disco. Yesterday's data was a shock and can humble the best of us. I took a deep dive at the data and come up with my conclusions. Early release of weekly note is available for clients below.

Another anecdote on labor supply. 3 weak NFPs in a row, yet UR hasn't moved. We saw a record surge in new entrants unemployment this month of 275k. If not for this, we would have been at 4% unemployment rate. It's going to be very complicated from here and stagflationary.

Today is not the day, but at some point foreign investors are going to ask why they hold US bonds with the below deficit trajectory and banana republic behavior like the below forecasts and firing of data collectors when you don't like the job report. Doom Loop will return.

My advice to @SteveMiran: Advise POTUS to drop the tariff policy. Between this and immigration policy, you are cratering the supply side and creating a major stagflationary impulse. You won on immigration. Nobody cares about trade. It's not too late.

Very weak report, wow. Yet it highlights the issue with labor supply as UR didn't budge and wages are actually higher and so were hours worked. I don't envy the Fed.

There are going to be some casualties in the commodity space this month