Fandom Identity and Speculative Tendencies @moonbirds , @foruai , @MemeMax_Fi This article analyzes the identity information and on-chain activities of specific NFT community members to explain how their collective speculative behavior in the meme coin market has been observed and interpreted based on facts. At the center of the analysis are the Moonbirds NFT community, ForU AI, which attempts to classify identities on the blockchain, and the MemeMax market where meme coin trading occurs. Moonbirds is an Ethereum-based NFT project that has garnered attention since its launch in 2022, experiencing several fluctuations in trading volume and price. According to on-chain records, Moonbirds saw a significant increase in trading volume during its early launch and when specific external events occurred, and these fluctuations were temporally aligned with external factors such as news of project acquisitions or rumors related to token issuance rather than spontaneous movements within the community. In this process, some observers interpreted that Moonbirds holders exhibited collective speculative tendencies, but actual on-chain data analysis did not confirm synchronized trading patterns where individual wallets bought and sold the same assets at the same time. ForU AI claims to estimate users' identity characteristics or community affiliation based on on-chain activities of wallets, but no classification accuracy or verified performance metrics have been presented based on publicly available data. Additionally, recent analyses of several large-scale airdrop cases revealed that about 12-13 percent of all wallets were identified as multi-accounts or Sybil accounts, indicating that there are structural limitations in accurately distinguishing actual members of a specific community based solely on on-chain activities. In such an environment, it cannot be ruled out that some wallets classified as members of a specific NFT community may actually be multiple accounts of the same user. Existing research on the meme coin market indicates that price fluctuations and trading surges of meme coins are generally associated with narrative-driven attention, liquidity shortages, and the increasing influence of a few large wallets. In several meme coin trading cases, including MemeMax, it has been observed that community discourse or social media expectations amplify volatility, but empirical research confirming that belonging to a specific NFT community directly induces such trading behavior has not yet been established. Academic studies also suggest that social identity may have a certain correlation with financial participation, but they have not provided evidence that members exhibit the same investment behavior solely because they belong to the same group. Moreover, caution is needed in equating the frequency of on-chain activities with actual risk preferences. Systems like ForU AI tend to capture wallets with high transaction counts or activity levels more prominently, which may simply indicate users who frequently move or manage assets and may not necessarily imply high-risk speculative tendencies. Furthermore, transactions on centralized exchanges or layer 2, as well as off-chain activities, are not captured in on-chain analysis, leaving an inherent gap in judging an individual's overall investment tendencies based solely on observable data. Such analyses also come with ethical and institutional considerations. The potential for personal identification arises when blockchain addresses are combined with other information, and classifying a specific community as a speculative group can leave unwanted stigmas on individuals. As seen in past cases of mixer usage or incorrect labeling, group-level classifications have led to restrictions on access to financial services or social misunderstandings. The European Union's data protection regulations also impose strict limitations when automated profiling has significant impacts on individuals. In summary, while it is technically possible to observe the on-chain identity estimation of Moonbirds community members alongside meme coin trading behaviors, the verified data to date does not support causal claims that a specific NFT fandom collectively engages in meme coin speculation. The observed trading surges and the spread of discourse are primarily explained by external market conditions and narrative factors, and on-chain identity classification and activity data clearly have limitations in definitively determining an individual's speculative tendencies or collective behavior, as confirmed by various studies and cases. $BIRB $ETH $M