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Cullen Roche
Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author of Your Perfect Portfolio & Pragmatic Capitalism 📖| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸
I love this. I prefer interest rates being set systematically (preferably by an algorithm), but if humans are going to do it then having a market practitioner at the helm is a fantastic change.
A market practitioner like Rieder will bring a more "real-time" view to policy and less reliance on purely academic and oftentimes lagging indicators. He will add a more diversified and alternative view to a mostly academic economist Fed Board.
I think Powell has done a fine job, but Rieder might actually be an upgrade in my opinion.
Jan 24, 02:28
RICK RIEDER EMERGES AS TOP CONTENDER FOR FED CHAIR
BlackRock executive Rick Rieder has surged as a leading candidate to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, with his odds on Kalshi jumping from 3% to 37%. President Trump is expected to announce his pick soon and is widely seen as favoring a Wall Street–connected candidate.
Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, has deep market experience, including two decades at Lehman Brothers. Meanwhile, former favorite Kevin Hassett has fallen out of favor amid concerns over Fed independence and a Justice Department probe involving Powell.
BlackRock declined to comment, and the White House said speculation remains premature.
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My view: Robin is more right than wrong on this debate with the MMT people. But I also think Robin overstates the "collapse" in Japan. Dollar/Yen is back to where it was in 1990. 10 year JGB rates are 2%, which is by no means high. This isn't a collapse. It's just a return to something much more sustainable than 0% rates.
That said, the response by Mosler in the linked MMT piece is not great. I don't know how he can can look at the Covid experience and still think raising interest rates adds to inflation. MMT's theory of inflation is deeply flawed, in large part because they treat interest rate changes so crudely.
Jan 22, 21:01
Japan is where MMT goes to die. MMT says a monetary sovereign like Japan can't run out of fiscal space as long as inflation is low. But the rise in yields & collapse in the Yen - even as inflation is low - say the opposite. A response to @StephanieKelton:
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