Counterpoint (with data): - Global life expectancy rose from 52 years (1970) to 73 years (2023). -Under-5 mortality dropped from 140 deaths per 1,000 births (1970) to 38 per 1,000 (2022). -The share of people living on <$2.15/day fell from ~42% (1981) to ~8.5% (2019). - Global adult literacy increased from 67% (1976) to 87% (2022). - People with access to clean drinking water increased from 69% (1990) to 91% (2022). - Global electricity access rose from 73% (1998) to 91% (2022). - Global internet access rose from 0% (1990) to 66% of humanity (2023). - Average daily global calorie supply rose from ~2,300 kcal/person/day (1965) to ~2,900 kcal/day (2020). - Global primary school enrollment increased from 75% (1970) to 90%+ (2020). - Real global GDP per capita more than doubled from ~$6,000 (1970, PPP-adjusted) to ~$16,000 (2023).

Latest FICA tracker update at 2.16% real growth (14 week avg). Seems pretty consistent with other labor market softening data. The comps in H1 of 26 are high so it will be interesting to see if this is foreshadowing of deeper labor market weakness.

While I don't subscribe to the "buffered outcome" ETF concept I will say this: Investors LOVE certainty of time in a portfolio. I generally loathe things like variable annuities, for instance, but some people love them because of the structured temporal outcomes they provide. Is it rational to pay very high fees for a guaranteed set of outcomes you can probably create with similar and far less expensive instruments? Not in my opinion. But I also know that sleeping well is priceless. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯