This Thursday, Buffett will disclose the 13-F report, which will include a mysterious holding of $5 billion. Berkshire's financial report shows that in the first half of this year, stock holdings in the commercial and industrial sectors have increased for two consecutive quarters, with a total investment amounting to nearly $5 billion. Buffett has been conveying optimism about the recovery of American manufacturing in recent years, and the market believes that Berkshire is betting on leading industrial stocks, which typically see a significant price surge after disclosure. Personally, I suspect it is likely also a leading industrial manufacturer. I just mentioned in the group that I am betting on AMAT or HON, not sure if that's correct...

Intel CEO Wu Ge will go to the White House on Monday, and I have already booked a post for Trump: "Lip-Bu Tan is a nice guy, and I am impressed by his background and resume But I still gave him some advice, you know, I have successful experience in managing companies in distress, Don't worry, I've taught Lip-Bu Tan how to save Intel, the best chips in the world will be made in the US factory"

MyStonksCN has upgraded again on the path to compliance. It feels like MyStonks' growth speed is just like leveling up in a game. Let me explain the STO filing: S (security) indicates that it is a security and must be regulated, T (token) indicates it uses blockchain technology, and O (offering) indicates raising funds from the public, which is a financing method. STO sounds complicated, but it really boils down to three keywords: compliance, financing, and circulation. Securing this filing means that MyStonks can utilize real underlying assets for tokenized public fundraising and comply with market circulation. This is much more legitimate than some of the current altcoin projects in the crypto space. The institutions that have obtained STO filings in the crypto space are all well-known, such as A16z, and even the leading compliant firm in the U.S., Coinbase, has not yet engaged in similar business on the compliance path. Interviewing @BTCBruce1, with this STO filing, can MyStonks create something like Tmall's selection, packaging quality project tokens to form a crypto version of the Nasdaq 100? MyStonks portal:

U.S. stock operation update: long gold $NUGT out, profit more than 30%, long gold on dips has always been said, $NBIS liquidation, profit 20%

Recently, several fans have generally asked me, if you want to make long-term investments, which field has great certainty and income potential? I think it is robots, especially in the field of humanoid robots, which will be the long-term super main line of A-share US stocks. At the beginning of this year, it was also very similar to 🍑 the new energy sector of the year, looking back from 2010 to 2021, this period of new energy-led magnificent market has given birth to many big bull stocks, including Tesla, CATL's industry giants, and stage bull stocks like Ideal and Ganfeng Lithium Why are we so optimistic about robots, the essence is another innovation of robots on productivity and production efficiency, which belongs to a new round of scientific and technological revolution In the future, this field must be a new wrestling arena between China and the United States, and the current humanoid robot is equivalent to an electric vehicle in 2012-2014, on the eve of 0-1 volume. Similar to the new energy cycle, it will also take 5-10 years to complete a cycle (concept hype, early stage of technology landing, technology update and iteration, large-scale mass production, cost and price involution) For the size of this market, institutions generally believe that it will be about $2 trillion in about 10 years, of course, Musk thinks 10 billion units (this pie is too big) I don't actually know how to find bull stocks in these fields, I can only judge according to my past cognition, bull stocks either have technical capabilities, firmly occupy the supply chain to sell shovels, or are the absolute head in the manufacturing field At this stage, the best way to participate is to be prudent is to be an industry ETF, and the maximum return is to find potential stocks and accompany the growth of the company If you ask me which potential stock, I don't know, I am also researching......

Bloomberg reported that Japan said the trade deal reached last month was a win-win for both sides, but how to implement it was more challenging than the agreement itself. In other words, Japan and the United States are only a verbal commitment and have not signed a written text, including a promise to invest $550 billion in the United States Because the investment of $550 billion mainly depends on the wishes of Japan's own companies, if Japanese companies do not plan to invest in the United States, Japan will not force them to invest, and the $550 billion may not be used. In addition, in the trade agreement between Japan and the United States, the United States wants to take 90% of Japan's investment income, but Japan's understanding is that if the United States accounts for 90% of the investment income, then the United States needs to invest 90% of its own investment. This is a full score, how much money you invest, how much share of income you have, there is nothing wrong with it. In fact, not only Japan, but also the trade agreements between the European Union and the United States, the two sides have different versions. The EU's 600 billion investment in the United States and 750 billion in commodity purchases are not mandatory, EU enterprises and member states decide for themselves, and the decision on arms procurement also lies with each member state, and the EU cannot intervene. The most practical 15% tariff is not unified among EU member states, and some member states even believe that von der Leyen is only responsible for negotiations, and the 15% tariff still needs to be voted on and approved by the EU Parliament However, the market has not paid attention to the tariff agreement between the EU and Japan, and the focus of the market is whether Trump has announced victory on Truth Social, as long as he wins, the risk is gone, and can India also let Trump win?

Looking at the mainland's economic data, the GDP deflator has been negative for 8 consecutive quarters, and economic deflation has actually lasted for 3 years. For ordinary people, the most intuitive feeling of deflation is that wages do not rise, it is difficult to find a job, housing prices have been falling, and consumer goods are sold very cheaply, so everyone must be clear that the actual situation of China's overall economic environment is deflation for 3 consecutive years. For the top management, it is self-evident what kind of economic policy to reverse the deflation for three consecutive years, it is necessary to engage in inflation, create inflation, and make the society rich, so that there can be consumption, and the price can be raised, thereby pushing up the CPI. Monetary policy is also very simple, if the conventional monetary policy of RRR and interest rate cuts does not work, the next step is to reduce the policy interest rate to zero or negative, and large-scale QE. However, the central bank's attitude is more interesting, in the first quarter monetary policy report, the central bank's clear view is that water release will cause deflation, and believes that the current monetary transmission policy has failed. To put it bluntly, the money is released into the hands of the bottom consumers at all, and the money printed has flowed to the investment side through the bank, which confirms that the sentence is that the money has flowed to the hands of people who do not need money, which is heart-wrenching. The central bank's view is indeed a bit too straightforward, but it still does not dare to talk about income redistribution. Of course, this is not the point of discussion. What I want to express is that deflation has been going on for 3 years, and the future policy goal must be inflation We must maintain confidence in the second half of A-shares, after all, the bull market of A-shares is not easy to come by, and the stock market is an important part of income redistribution. ps: In the second half of the year, A-shares should try to stay in the fields of technology, AI, and consumer electronics, and don't touch the pure consumer sector.

Judging from today's reflection of A-shares, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks last Friday has been desensitized, and the funds on today's A-share market are basically concentrated in the military industry and technology sectors, and the military industry has also taken the lead in recovering from last week's adjustment, and the aerospace ETF once rose by more than 3%. The view for A-shares is that the second half of the year must be a structural bull market, the so-called structural bull market is the rotation of funds, and each sector will be wet with rain and dew, so in the context of a structural bull market, do not change shares frequently, do not fall behind easily, and the bull market loss is basically the reason for frequent stock exchange and excessive dispersion of positions. In addition, the non-farm payroll data last Friday was revised down sharply, from the perspective of the sub-structure, almost all of the contribution of new non-farm payrolls came from health care, and the scope of employment growth became narrower and narrower, causing market shocks. Now the market may need to re-examine the U.S. statistical system, which was once billed as the most complete and transparent in the world, but it is a bit too early to think that Friday's non-farm payrolls could be an inflection point for the adjustment of U.S. stocks. Coincidentally, August 2 last year was also a non-farm payroll data that was significantly lower than expected, and the previous data for May and June was also revised downward. That non-farm payrolls data triggered Sam's Rule and made the market worry about a recession, and the Nasdaq fell sharply by more than 2% on the same day. You see last Friday and August 2 last year, at least in terms of storyline is strikingly similar, in September last year, the Fed directly chose to cut interest rates by 50BP urgently, and this time the Fed also cut interest rates by 50BP in September, which is also very likely, hahaha is all scripted. This week's U.S. stock trend, borrowing the view of the strategy report to the institution on Sunday, judges that the overall trend is volatile and weakening, and the probability of a pullback or consolidation is quite large. The SPX should be in the range of 6080-6404 next week, with an estimated probability of 68%, and if there is no particular positive news, the market will be sluggish for a while. It also means that this is a good buying range......

Today's non-farm payrolls data was indeed quite surprising, with the increase in employment hitting a new low in nine months Seeing that the data for May and June was revised and almost downgraded to a level close to 0, what is the difference between this and admitting that the data in May and June was fraudulent? After the data came out, the US dollar dived instantly, and gold rose sharply If this data is true, it means that the labor market has deteriorated sharply, and the two interest rate cuts during the year should not have run, and the possibility of a 50bp rate cut in September cannot even be ruled out If this is the case, it does "prove" that the Fed's round of interest rate cuts is seriously lagging behind, which means that interest rate cuts will be very rapid. This is obviously not a good thing, it means that the US stock market will usher in rapid and violent fluctuations, and the current market is reacting to this situation, don't chase more, don't chase long, wait for the market to digest it I don't know what Trump will say after reading this data and dramatic story.

Today's AH stocks, the Asia-Pacific stock market are falling, why can't the US stock market fall, but I want to say that the vitality of the US stock market is very tenacious, and it is not a currency circle copycat What are you afraid of? As for why it fell, in fact, if it rose more, it will naturally fall, there is not much reason to need, although the overall market will fall again, but the VIX is back below 16, which shows that the sentiment is still optimistic, and it is more waiting for confirmation signals. The market logic of the US stock market is very strong, AI commercialization is accelerating, and now no one is doubting the profitability of AI applications. After listening to Meta's earnings call last night, Zuckerberg said: Superintelligence is just around the corner, and people without AI glasses will be at a disadvantage in the future. This strengthens my bet on the AI glasses sector. Any risk market has never been rising, the characteristics of U.S. stocks are that they do not pull back, and the pullback will be very urgent and very violent, but the U.S. stocks have a strong ability to repair, and every time U.S. stocks fall by more than 20%, they can always quickly pull back, recover the decline, and hit a new high, with an average median recovery of only 17 days. Historically, once the scale of U.S. stocks is adjusted, the repair profit is also very considerable, with the S&P 500 rising by an average of 8.2% in the six months after the correction and a 12-month win rate of 78%. Therefore, if there is really a decent wave of adjustments, it will be a great opportunity. For retail investors, the cost of taking the initiative to make mistakes is higher than missing them, don't be afraid, adjustment is not a bad thing, laugh at it!