🧵 U (USDT) breaks below 7: Is it a transmission of macro exchange rates, or a liquidity crisis in the shadow system? The U price against the RMB has fallen below the 7 threshold, causing market agitation. Many attribute this simply to a "weak dollar" or "strong RMB." This view is too superficial. This breakdown is essentially a "dual resonance" formed by the appreciation of macro fundamentals and the collapse of market microstructure due to high regulatory pressure. This is not just price volatility, but a severe clearing of the offshore shadow fiat currency system. 👇 (1/5) 1️⃣ Macro Anchor: The endogenous strengthening of the RMB We must acknowledge the changes in the "foundation." The U price is primarily a derivative shadow of the official USD to RMB exchange rate. Recently, a series of domestic economic stimulus policies have been implemented, combined with the traditional peak of export enterprises' foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year, the onshore/offshore RMB exchange rate is already in a strong appreciation channel. The downward shift of the official USD to RMB exchange rate's center is the fundamental physical environment for the decline of the U price. Without the skin, where will the hair attach? (2/5) 2️⃣ Core Driver: "Compliance Panic" triggered by upgraded regulatory tone The true accelerator causing the U price to drop far beyond the official exchange rate (deep negative premium) comes from the latest meeting led by the central bank. The meeting clearly classified stablecoins (USDT) as "virtual currencies" and emphasized their significant risks in anti-money laundering (AML) and KYC. This signal directly breached the psychological defense line of the OTC (over-the-counter) market. The previous fantasies of the gray area have been shattered, and market makers and large holders, in order to avoid extremely severe compliance and legal risks, chose to urgently sell off to seek refuge. (3/5) 3️⃣ Market Microstructure: Severe "Negative Premium" and liquidity squeeze The essence of the current U price falling below 7 is the emergence of a significant negative premium. That is: the transaction price of U in the OTC market is lower than the official USD spot price. This reveals the true supply and demand structure of the current market: there is a strong willingness to withdraw funds (huge selling pressure), while the willingness to deposit funds has drastically shrunk due to fears of card freezing risks (buying pressure exhausted). This is a typical characteristic of localized liquidity squeeze, with funds attempting to flow back to the safe RMB fiat currency system regardless of cost. (4/5) 4️⃣ Conclusion: Moment of sharply increasing risk premium U breaking below 7 is the result of the collision between the macro "strong RMB" narrative and the reality of "strong regulation" in the crypto space. For market participants, this marks a sharp increase in the risk premium of fiat currency channels (OTC). In the eye of the regulatory storm, it is crucial to avoid attempting high-frequency fiat arbitrage. At this moment, the safety attributes of channel funds are far more important than that one or two percentage points of exchange rate difference. #USDT #RMB exchange rate #financial regulation #macro economy #加密市场分析