The current state of ETH and the inflow of funds is very similar to when mining stocks and MicroStrategy financed buying BTC to hit $100,000. At that time, many people thought that over $100,000 was the peak of this cycle, and now it has reached $120,000. Although BTC and ETH have great underlying assets and a grand future, let's not forget that last December, BTC dropped 14% within four days after reaching a high of $108,000. Now, ETH is also near a critical position at $4,000, with a lot of trapped positions at this level. Will the same script repeat itself with ETH? Will it drop first and then reach a new high, leaving many people without positions? The frustrating part about this round of ETH is that the K-line shows it has only risen 10% this year, despite experiencing a significant drop in between. However, in the past three months, it has surged 150% almost without a break, while the fundamentals of Ethereum have not changed that much during this time. The reason for such a surge also comes from the liquidity premium and emotional premium in the US stock market. There are too many companies wanting to do MicroStrategy-like investments in the US stock market, and the liquidity is abundant. Last Friday, the daily trading volume of SBET was $12.6 billion, making it easy for companies to cash out hundreds of millions of dollars. The liquidity is just too good. Using the cash-out money to buy ETH, hundreds of millions of dollars boost ETH's price and gain emotional premium. When prices rise, a stronger positive cycle will be created, but will it really continue indefinitely? When will it stop? This is something we need to think about. How to reasonably analyze how much ETH will rise? I have always struggled to understand why ETH's market cap could be higher than Alibaba's. Just yesterday, I saw a post that completely convinced me. If anyone knows, please @ me; I can't find the original post. How is ETH valued? The reference standard is the stablecoins running on ETH in the future * 2, because according to the POS mechanism, controlling 51% of the nodes could control the entire network. Currently, the scale of stablecoins on Ethereum is about $120 billion, up from $70 billion last year, with a growth rate of 70%. Based on this, a valuation of over $400 billion for Ethereum seems quite reasonable, but we also need to consider the current valuation cap of ETH as a standard; we can't just assume that ETH's price should rise to $10,000. Since the greatest value of the ETH network comes from stablecoins, I will use the market cap of the leading payment company Visa as the valuation cap, which is $658.7 billion. If ETH and Visa had the same market cap, then its price should be $5,452, which would indeed exceed the highest point of $4,800 in 2021.

A-shares are once again running parallel with ETH, and it turns out that both have increased by 10% this year.

The public offering price of pumpfun is $0.004. The peak point is 0.004*1.7=0.0068. The script prediction was successful, but in less than half a month, the market didn't hold up. After raising funds, they immediately dumped and left, revealing their true colors as a scumbag.

The Great Beauty Act turned out to be the Great Bubble Act, diluting debt by stimulating nominal GDP growth.

It turns out that Duoer came to China and collaborated with Luckin Coffee, even going to Nanjing. I'm dying of laughter. Completely famous now.

Nick's latest tweet: Why did Bessent advise Trump against firing Powell? Here are a few reasons: ) 1) Federal Reserve officials have hinted that they may cut rates twice before the end of the year: Powell doesn't need to be fired to lower rates, so why take the risk? 2) Firing Powell could trigger market panic: Investors might feel that the president is interfering with monetary policy, which would be detrimental to the independence of the financial system. 3) Legal complications: Powell could sue, and the lawsuit might drag on until spring—just as Powell's term is ending. 4) If Powell is removed, there's no guarantee that a successor will be confirmed quickly. Under current law, the Fed's vice chair exercises authority in the absence of the chair. Vice Chair Jefferson was appointed by Biden and is also an ally of Powell. It’s clear that Bessent isn’t particularly supportive of Powell, but rather weighing the pros and cons to tell Trump that doing this might not yield the desired outcome, especially since time is on Trump’s side; with each passing day, Powell's term gets shorter. I have to say, having a rational adult like Bessent around Trump is quite something.

Explain why it is said that the net is being closed. SBET holds over 310,000 coins, worth more than 1 billion USD, but most of these holdings are just being shuffled from one hand to the other, with a small portion purchased from the market. Holding 1 billion USD worth of ETH cannot dominate the crypto market. So SBET has taken a different approach, using 1 billion USD to leverage a market cap of 400 billion for ETH. Recently, many people have started to claim that ETH has risen due to value discovery, but the relationship is not significant; it is not an improvement in fundamentals, but rather that a consortium has discovered a way to print money. Let me explain this to you in detail. 1. Buy a shell company in the US stock market, inject 1 billion USD into the publicly listed company, and dilute existing shareholders through a secondary offering. They control 90% of the circulating shares, then say, look, my company's net assets are now equal to the ETH I hold, why don't you buy in? 2. In the crypto market, they say that US-listed companies are starting to accumulate ETH, and the company still has cash and will continue to purchase tens of billions of USD from the market, so ETH is bound to skyrocket. 3. When ETH rises, it becomes easier to raise funds through issuing junk bonds in the US stock market, raising a few hundred million USD, all used to buy ETH. In the end, not only do they gain a company worth tens of billions of USD, but they also hold tens of billions of USD in ETH. With SBET's current market cap being only around 3 billion, they still want to issue more shares to raise 5 billion USD. After deducting liabilities, they could net tens of billions of USD in just a few months? Faster than Trump's money printer! Raising funds through junk bonds is even more than raising funds through US stock listings, which is absurd. It is similar to the previous SPAC shell company hype, and it will eventually be called to a halt by regulators. If that happens, the stock could face a drop of 50%-70%, and ETH might also drop back to its original point, falling by 30%. I don't know how long this market irrationality will last, but these are things you need to understand clearly before participating. This is neither a new model nor a perpetual motion machine.

Complete success! SBET has once again closed the net, hope you haven't been trapped.

Wow, this airdrop is actually worth $254 tonight. Binance Alpha is calling you all back to work!

Meitu has taken a script of rebirth similar to Pop Mart. Meitu's stock peaked at HKD 11.96, dropping 96%, and is now at HKD 10.6. Based on the lowest point in 2022 of HKD 0.46, it has already seen a 23-fold increase, while Pop Mart rose from its lowest point of HKD 8.8 to HKD 266, a 30-fold increase. Meitu has 266 million monthly active users. It has 14 million paying users, with a revenue growth rate of 30%. Meitu's AI tools are among the top in the market, focusing on solving the issues of e-commerce product images, providing essential solutions for product conversion rates and bulk image generation, making commercialization easier. Additionally, it is backed by Alibaba's server computing resources, creating a certain moat. Even if other companies level the playing field with Meitu in terms of algorithms, without the advantage in computing power, they still cannot shake Meitu's position. Moreover, Meitu consistently ranks in the top 5 for overseas revenue in China, with its ranking relying on some overseas hit features like AI dressing and portrait photography. Long-term competitiveness will depend on the global penetration of AI productivity tools and the deepening of paid conversions. Meitu's moat lies in: the ability to solve essential needs in vertical scenarios (such as e-commerce design) + Alibaba's computing power positioning + the potential for global paid deep exploration. If it continues to fulfill the explosive expectations of "productivity tools going overseas," it may replicate Pop Mart's trajectory to a market value of hundreds of billions.