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$LITE Transcript from Conference Call:
"The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates.
Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge."
They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics.
Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night.
I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout.
I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then.
This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up.
My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.

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