Crypto Twitter is arguing about CPI decimals again. Nobody noticed what the bond market just did. This matters way more for Bitcoin than any inflation print. 🧵

10-year yield just cracked below 4.10%. Lowest in months. Whilst the 2-year breaks below range lows. Home sales? Biggest drop since 2022. This isn't the bond market pricing "inflation is cooling." This is the bond market pricing a slowdown. Big difference.

Disinflation = Fed takes its time. Maybe cuts once or twice. No rush. Slowdown = Fed gets forced to move. Fast. CPI says inflation is down to 2.4%. Fine. Bonds are saying the economy is slowing. Which one matters more?

BTC doesn't rip because CPI came in 0.1% below consensus. BTC rips when the Fed goes from "we can wait" to "we need to act." Bonds are suggesting that's next. But everyone's too busy debating 0.2% vs 0.3% MoM to see it.