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Elon replied "Yeah" to this post.
And I REALLY hate being the retard of the bunch.
But this still doesn't confirm if purchasing FSD outright GUARANTEES Unsupervised for no additional cost.
The literal text says that HW3 owners who purchased FSD will get their hardware upgraded FOR FREE - however, this doesn't explicitly GUARANTEE that Unsupervised will be included.
It could be that Tesla is upgrading the Hardware so that HW3 owners are ABLE to PAY for Unsupervised on their existing vehicle, instead of being completely blocked out of it.
Unsupervised FSD is a massive step change in the asset value of Tesla's vehicles - when the car goes from having to pay attention, to not having to pay attention. You could literally sit in your back seat working while the car takes no anywhere.
Right now it's $8k upfront for FSD, which is going away on February 14th. If we assume that includes the upgrade to Unsupervised at no additional charge:
Over the life of the vehicle - let's be conservative and say 300k miles - that's an effective rate of $0.026 PER MILE for Unsupervised. Less than 3 cents per mile to have an AI driver taking you everywhere. On an average day of about 60 miles that's $1.56 per day of UNSUPERVISED.
That means that as long as your time is worth more than $1.56 per hour or two - YOU SHOULD BE BUYING FSD RIGHT NOW... IF Tesla GUARANTEES that Unsupervised will be included in today's FSD price. Think of what you could be doing in the car, while it drives you around, that's worth more than $1.56 per hour.
Shitposting on X for an hour will make you MORE than that. Literally. You could sit in your car with Unsupervised FSD, and just spend the entire time on X for 60 miles trolling everyone, and you would get PAID MORE to do that THAN IT COSTS FOR UNSUPERVISED.
Under this scenario, Tesla's biggest expense would be insuring the vehicle, since if the car is Unsupervised, the only thing that would make sense is for TESLA to be liable if the car got into any sort of accident where FSD is at fault.
$0.03 per mile is $300 per month insurance bill with a car driving nearly 10k miles per month. It's not impossible to get that rate for an autonomous car long term, but Tesla would effectively forego any profits from Unsupervised FSD on the existing fleet - as long as people bought FSD up front.
Apologies if it's obvious to others, but it's still unclear to me because of the dynamic above.
If indeed it does include Unsupervised, then everyone with a Tesla that has the ability to buy FSD, needs to buy it YESTERDAY if they value their time (and have the means).
So it would be extremely valuable and helpful if @elonmusk or @tesla answer with a very simple Yes/No question to the below:
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