U.S.–China talks won’t lead to full supply chain decoupling. history shows total bans only fuel domestic build-up; drip-feeding keeps dependence. even with 85% of global rare earth refining—the U.S. military’s lifeblood—China will likely keep supplying, just as the U.S. still sells chips to China. but the prisoner’s dilemma means no true “G2”: each guards its core advantages. US won't give up weapons supply chain and china won't surrender financial sovereignty. this managed rivalry could offer long-term plays in alternative supply chains, gray-zone trade, and resource cycles.

Wall Street, please don't trust us with trillions-at least not yet. Base went down for 33 minutes, required a manual sequencer reset. Solana has suffered 7 outages—5 caused by client bugs and 2 by its inability to handle spam. Polygon down twice from software upgrade errors and consensus issues. Aptos, Sui... many more. tradFi isn’t perfect either, feb 2021, Fedwire halted billions for hours due to a human error, and July 2024 SWIFT’s outage disrupted high-value transactions across Europe. the losses were real. would L2s really give up thick sequencer fees just to decentralize? so far—except @ethereum other chains introduces tremendous operational risk. how can Wall Street justify underwriting this at scale?

the U.S. stock door is closing fast for mainland investors: 1. offshore accounts now require in-person HK visits & stricter KYC 2. brokerages like Futu, Tiger now delisted from CN App Store 3. CRS info now triggered 20% overdue tax bills— begin from users invested over 1M+ receiving notices 4. $50K FX cap limits outbound capital it used to be a hustle—but worth it. now? not so much. onchain stocks still cracks. but no bank, no FX, ambiguous tax? where opportunity seeps in.

Too many conversations about stablecoin adoption focus on narrow benefits: lower fees, faster settlement, etc. But payments are multiplayer games. Every transaction touches two or more of: users, banks, processors, issuers, liquidity providers... In many flows, like e-commerce or cross-border, multiple parties must adopt together. There’s no clean first mover. It’s a classic chicken-and-egg problem. Each stakeholder weighs perceived upside against real switching costs: operational burden, lost revenue (float, FX, interchange), retraining, and the mental inertia of behavior change, especially inside large organizations. This creates a coordination and sequencing problem. Even if the tech is “better,” adoption stalls unless incentives align across the value chain. Stablecoins’ disruptive potential can only be realized if the incentive design solves the multi-party coordination challenge. Smart builders look for wedges. Use cases where a single stakeholder with the most to gain can adopt unilaterally. Then they stitch together secondary use cases to build network effects. Once a network hits critical mass, it's very hard to dislodge. Example: Dollar access in the global south. A user downloads an app and solves their pain point. If their friend does too, P2P is unlocked. If not, it’s just one more node to recruit. This is also why stablecoin-backed cards will grow faster than direct merchant acceptance. The spending user acts alone, and instantly gets access to millions of merchants. As Charlie Munger said: “Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.” Founders who design around incentives, not just tech, will have the edge.

a semi-weird angle on tolerance for tokenized stocks: it's (tax saved by going onchain) + (DeFi revenue) v.s. premium paid onchain for reliable asset real talk, what's the actual value prop of tokenized equities atm? - NOT accessibility: Europe & Asia have mature brokers (IBKR, Saxo, Futu, Tiger...) - NOT 24/7: unless you’re a high-frequency(now no liquidity) or news-driven, no one really cares the real (slightly taboo) adoption drivers: 1. tax arbitrage — buying on DEX can be somewhat “liberating” 2. deFi composability — TradFi stocks ≠ money, but in DeFi it is. you can collateralize, loop, plug into any smart contract it’s not just that "stocks are accessible globally”, it’s that stocks become programmable, composable assets. yes, liquidity poor, premiums high. MMs don’t want to LP in AMMs, 35–50+bps doesn't worth it as they'll get picked off on news during the weekend. offchain price discovery will just fundamentally introduce that difficulty. but in every chicken–egg problem, someone’s got to kickstart it.

the future of equities is absolutely 1,000 different tokenization standards, no question do you own rTSLA, cTSLA, sTSLA, xyzTSLA, ethTSLA, solTSLA or hyperTSLA?

True prelude to tokenized securities boom in the U.S. 1/ Issuance: New registration pathways, rather than current forms (like S-1), and exemptions are designed for tokenized assets 2/ Custody: Rescinded SAB 121 reduces custodian balance sheet requirements (the cost of capital and operational burdens didn't make sense before). 3/ Trading: Support for super apps and expanded crypto asset listing on national securities exchanges. Growth Opportunities: - Tokenization platforms enabling traditional asset conversion (more @Securitize ?) - Financial super apps combining traditional and digital assets and services (more @RobinhoodApp into crypto) - Institutional self-custody digital asset solutions (without relying bank/crypto exchange?) - Dedicated security token exchanges (crypto > tradfi / tradfi > crypto)