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the following is generated using an ensemble model, ie prompting chatgpt gemini claude using their most advanced models and deep research about ~10 times, then averaging the 10 results using a reasoning model.
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The 10 most AI-durable competitive moats in the world
1. TSMC — Controls 90% of cutting-edge AI chip fabrication with $30B+ per fab costs creating insurmountable barriers. AI demand is tripling revenues while geopolitical risk in Taiwan remains the key concern.
2. Visa — 300B+ annual transactions across 200+ countries create an unbreakable two-sided network built over decades. AI agents needing trusted payment rails make Visa more essential, with agentic commerce growing ~45% CAGR through 2030.
3. ASML — 100% monopoly on EUV lithography — the only machines that can make advanced AI chips, with China’s alternative 15-20 years behind. Pat Dorsey’s #2 holding at 15% of portfolio; export controls to China are the primary risk.
4. MSCI — Indices benchmarked to $15T+ in global assets, embedded in regulatory frameworks and ETF structures, making them “effectively irreplaceable.” 80%+ gross margins with AI raising rather than lowering competitive barriers for would-be disruptors.
5. S&P Global — Duopoly in credit ratings reinforced by SEC regulation, with $15.3B revenue and 50% operating margins. $1B+ invested in AI since 2018, though the stock dropped 18% in one day during the Feb 2026 SaaSpocalypse on conservative guidance.
6. Moody’s — Shares the regulatory-embedded credit rating duopoly with S&P, with ratings potentially even more resilient due to deeper regulatory entrenchment. The Orbis private company database is a unique proprietary data asset that AI makes more valuable.
7. Mastercard — Mirrors Visa’s network moat across 210+ countries with $7B+ invested in cybersecurity and AI. Launched “Agent Pay” for AI agent transactions, transforming transaction data into high-margin analytics.
8. Microsoft — 350M+ commercial Office 365 users, Azure growing 40%, and a $10B AI inference run rate — the fastest revenue ramp in business history. Enterprise switching costs make replacement “open-heart surgery,” but $80-93B in capex with uncertain returns is the risk.
9. Alphabet/Google — 16.4B daily searches generate the world’s richest intent dataset, while YouTube provides unmatched multimodal training data. AI Overview monetizes at parity with traditional ads, though search share dipped below 90% for the first time since 2015.
10. Hermès — Possibly the most AI-proof moat on Earth: 187 years of heritage, hand-stitched Birkin bags, and artificial scarcity that no algorithm can replicate. Overtook LVMH as Europe’s most valuable luxury company, but trades at 52x earnings — 56% above Morningstar’s fair value.
(my “ensemble model” approach to using ai chatbots is one of my best hacks for using chatbots — given models r nondeterministic and trained differently by each lab)
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