Kevin Warsh is above the bar for the Fed. But to be even better than that he'll have to follow four rules I outlined in @TheFP: 1. Independence 2. Nonpartisan 3. From critic to leader 4. Willingness to reverse himself
1. Independence is the foundation of everything else. I take comfort from the fact that when Trump was nervous about nominating Warsh because he thought he would become his own man at the Fed. I believe he can be and has he skills and incentives to make it work.
2. Warsh has criticized the Fed for wandering into political issues beyond its narrow remit. He's right--but needs to make sure he doesn't fall into the same trap when it comes to issues like energy deregulation and tax cuts.
3. Tim Geithner used to say "plan beats no plan." Warsh has been an incessant critic of the Fed without always saying what he would actually do differently. He'll need to make the shift to leader.
4. The Fed's greatest strength is not that it always gets things right but that it error corrects & learns, like it did when it waited too long but then pivoted to rapid rate hikes in 2022. Warsh will need to do the same, possibly starting w/ his call to shrink the balance sheet.
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