BTC subiu 10 mil em um dia enquanto Tether fud e Saylor falavam sobre vender BTC pela primeira vez na história. Interessante.

It's clear to me that AI is the thing that threw off the typical 4yr credit/business cycle (and thus BTC's cycle presumably) A completely uncorrelated catalyst, it could have happened any time but it happened at peak bear. It came in and saved the market right at the time where monetary policy/credit cycles normally would have had to start stepping in. The advent of AI, unlike normal business drivers, was not tied in any way to the normal timing of business cycles. It follows that throwing in a completely exogenous massively stimulative event would change the normal cadence of things. GDP stayed up, earnings stayed up, money poured into US tech, those invested in that tech and the indices containing them made out extremely well and could support the economy all on their own spending. But under the hood, normal people, normal businesses have been deteriorating. Without AI we likely would have fallen further in 2022 or needed easing sooner. But the huge AI stimulus lifted the indices and GDP so the Fed didn't need to step in, they could keep hiking rates for a bit, they could keep doing QT until now, etc. Everyone expected recession in 2022, perhaps they would have been right if AI capex didn't swoop in to save us at the bottom. But this "AI stimulus" is not as broad as monetary stimulus. It doesn't give all businesses access to cheap capital like low rates do, we don't see an uptick in most businesses because of this, we don't see the normal business cycle. The result is monetary/credit/business cycles got pushed back, there has not been reason for reignition of these cycles since overall the state of the economy is being held up by the top earners and the picture remains rosy so long as you look at the average. But this can only go on so long without those top 10% effects flowing down to the bottom 90%. That 90% needs saving at some point which is why I believe the cycle has just been extended, not avoided entirely. I imagine at some point we'll see more breadth to the market, that AI money hopefully propagating some as AI capex reaches a tipping point, and the middle class businesses getting a boost from stimulus and cheap capital. As always the tricky part is path dependency/timing. Even if everything I say here works out as expected, when it happens and how bad things get first can vary a lot. Do we transition smoothly right into a new business cycle or does it take a recession to reset us first? Lots of paths can bring us to the one result I've outlined.