I never expected that while CPI didn't explode, PPI did, indicating that American capitalists are swallowing the tariff costs. No wonder employment is struggling. The key now is whether companies will gradually pass on costs to consumers. Or is it a one-time shock to corporate costs? From the more forward-looking data from Truflation, it currently seems there is no transmission. I still maintain my view of a 25bps rate cut in September. However, I will withdraw the rate cut trade and enter before/after Jackson Hole.

PPI MoM hottest since March 2022 as services PPI explode higher. Over half of the increase is attributable to margins for final demand trade services, which jumped 2.0%

The previous high of $eth at 4800 is merely a meme point with no real significance. The actual selling pressure before 2021 has been gradually sold off at the 3500-4000 level since March 2024. The entire $eth market above 4000 is essentially a trapped position, and the historical selling pressure has nearly been exhausted at the 3500-4000 level. Reaching a peak can only happen when buying pressure is exhausted; whether it's the $bmnr just announced 20B USD ATM or the 401K allowing investments, none of these relate to the exhaustion of buying pressure. In terms of supply and demand: abundant buying pressure and essentially exhausted trapped positions. $eth at 4800 is like $btc at 20000 in 2020. Just like I said in 2020: "Once it goes above 12000, there’s nothing above." Here it changes to 4000. Above 4000 for $eth, there’s nothing.

I think Dong Ge said something very true. On this planet, besides US Treasuries, Hong Kong stocks are the most sensitive assets to the Federal Reserve's policies 😂. The valuation multiple depends entirely on the US dollar index and the Fed rate.

LEU has a logic similar to rare earths, which is about uranium enrichment to reduce reliance on Russia. Among them, Russia accounts for 27%, while the rest relies entirely on Europe, and in the U.S., only LEU is available. $LEU is one of the few companies in the U.S. with commercial production qualifications for HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) nuclear fuel and has already achieved mass production and delivery.

Schmid has started talking nonsense, we need to schedule a 1:1 with Trump.

TIPS are jumping quite a bit. On one hand, CPI is slowing down, while on the other hand, Supercore remains sticky. In the big trend, it should rise, but the decline in the two-year rate can't compete with the 5/10-year TIPS being held down. Similar to what was mentioned yesterday, there is room for an increase, but it keeps getting compressed. Gold bulls should wait for 3405 to stabilize before entering; otherwise, ignore it.

The core goods excluding used cars have seen a slowdown in month-on-month growth, stabilizing at an annualized rate over three months. This is the best evidence that the market hopes to see: "The impact of tariffs on core goods inflation is temporary and one-time." I believe that a rate cut in September is 100% likely to happen. Jackson Hole will amplify the dovish stance. Additionally, I recommend checking out M2M investment research for macro analysis; their knowledge-sharing platform and public account are really impressive, and I've learned a lot.

LMAO, if you think there's too much money, you can donate it to charity. Can one person gather the Avengers to take on the entire market? 😂