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Co-author of the viral Citrini research article @alapshah1 explains why the piece puts so much emphasis on the white-collar economy, even in the face of the relative strength of blue-collar sectors such as healthcare:
"It's all just one labor market."
"If the white collar jobs are going away - in our scenario we talk about 5% of folks might get fired in a couple years - if there aren't white-collar jobs for them to relocate into, they're going to have to move into the gig economy and the blue-collar labor force. So that puts pressure on the entire labor market, not just the white-collar one."
"Health care is growing, education is growing... The government continues to spend more - that's why healthcare is growing - they're the biggest payer in healthcare, they're guaranteeing all the loans in the education industry. Those sectors continue to grow because government spending grows."
"But it gets very circular, because if government spending is coming primarily from taxes - and primarily payroll taxes, because the average worker pays a lot more in taxes per dollar than the average corporate does, so some corporates make a lot more money, [but] workers' payroll taxes go down more. Then there are [some] contagion effects into bonds as well."
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