1) A lasting ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, along with unchanged sanctions (high probability), will lead some risk-averse funds to flow into the crypto market; 2) Tariff costs are mainly absorbed by importers and producers, rather than consumers, and the divergence in PPI and CPI data can reflect this (aside from economic recovery); 3) China's credit cycle may restart, and interest rate cuts will further weaken the dollar, adding fuel to re-inflation in China and Asia (mainly Japan); 4) If the next Federal Reserve chair is not the current popular candidate but a dark horse who is a strong advocate for interest rate cuts, it could be a significant disruptor of the long-term game rules; 5) Liquidity continues to rise, and short-term data cannot disturb the long-term bullish trend; 6) The length of the business cycle is continuously being compressed → because central banks are constantly intervening in the market, the risk of recession is reduced, but the driving logic is shifting more from fundamentals to liquidity and sentiment; 7) Macroeconomics is the foundation, and the dollar is the core material of that foundation. The dollar far exceeds a simple currency attribute; it is the ultimate valve of global liquidity; * The "dollar milkshake theory" during crises acts like a black hole siphoning global funds. The current dollar depreciation cycle plays the role of a "main irrigation channel" in the global market, continuously and widely delivering liquidity to all corners, constantly nourishing risk assets; * Interest rate cuts will open the valve for small-cap stocks' dedicated channel; * Business cycle expansion is directly from the main irrigation channel to a dedicated channel for small-cap stocks.

August 21-23, Jackson Hole; If the market has been weak beforehand, it is likely due to the expectation of Powell's hawkish manipulation, using the opportunity to suppress and wash out, then rally; It could also rally first and then drop with a hawkish stance; Of course, if a dovish stance is presented, that's another story; ps: Since the pandemic, Jackson Hole hasn't released any dovish signals; However, from a broader perspective, there is no choice but to cut rates, and from a narrower perspective, Powell in the Federal Reserve isn't as tough anymore; Devaluation must continue, so rate cuts must also be coordinated;

Today's quantitative system upgrade work was just perfect 🐸🐸

This is a cost-push type of PPI increase, rather than one driven by overheating demand; The core driving force is due to the slow recovery of the economy, the return of upstream raw material demand, and the gradually expanding economy's increased demand for raw materials and goods, making price increases a very normal phenomenon and a clear signal of economic recovery; This cost-push type of PPI increase cannot be quickly transmitted to CPI; Because terminal demand has not fully recovered, the market does not have enough hot money for consumers to spend freely, and companies also lack strong pricing power to directly pass costs onto the end consumer; In the context of a necessary depreciation of the dollar + a slowly recovering economy + a central bank ready to inject liquidity = a golden combination for risk assets;

Super depreciation cycle combined with an orderly interest rate reduction cycle combined with a business recovery cycle;

I remember when the market was very pessimistic, even mocking that purple chart above; Many people panic-sold their ETH at the bottom, or sold halfway up, and then happily tweeted that they were early sellers, so they made money; Now these people are starting to talk confidently again, generally being pessimistic about charts like the one below; Buying into the chart below is simple statistical arbitrage.

In April, you didn't dare to buy the purple chart; Now, you don't dare to buy the green chart;

The PEPE/ETH exchange rate is bottoming out, driven by PEPE's consolidation and ETH's rise, which is a very bullish scenario.

First Bitcoin. Then Ethereum. Then meme coins. Each wave stronger than the last. $PEPE 🐸

The clown loves to bounce around，chads will give him lessons.