Bitcoin has climbed from $85K to $119K in just a few months. The driver? Another strong expansion phase in Bitcoin ETF flows which have moved sharply higher. It’s the third time this pattern has played out since last year. And each time, the correlation between flows and price action has been clear.

Bitcoin’s dominance has slipped slightly, from 66% to around 60%, but that doesn’t change the bigger picture. Over the last few years, Bitcoin has been the primary driver behind the expansion of the entire crypto market.

Bitcoin now has three ETFs ranked among the top 100 by AUM. The largest, IBIT, is just $15B behind GLD, the top gold ETF. This is no longer a fringe asset.

With the NASDAQ 100 pushing to new highs, Bitcoin is shedding one of its key headwinds. Historically, when the NASDAQ 100 delivers below-average returns, Bitcoin tends to struggle: gains are capped and the risk of large drawdowns increases. That’s been the case for much of this year. But now, the NASDAQ is back above its long-term average 12-month return and still climbing. That creates a much more supportive backdrop for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been less volatile than Nvidia for over three years now. Even with Bitcoin pushing to new all-time highs, its realized volatility is still declining. It’s no longer an outlier. Bitcoin now sits comfortably in the same volatility range as large-cap growth stocks.

ETFs and public companies with Bitcoin treasuries have become major players in the market. Over the past five years, their combined Bitcoin holdings have increased ninefold, now accounting for more than 11% of the total supply. These are the actors worth watching when tracking demand.

June’s CPI report isn’t encouraging but tariffs aren’t the problem. The real issue is that core inflation, especially core services, ticked higher. That points to persistent structural pressure, likely tied to a still-tight labor market. This kind of reading doesn’t support the case for the Fed to accelerate rate cuts.

Bitcoin flows and momentum are running hot. Following last week’s breakout, price has entered overbought territory and ETF flows are now well above typical short-term ranges. That kind of setup often leads to a short-term pause or minor reversal. But the broader picture remains bullish.

The Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of their strongest single-day inflows on record last week. That surge didn’t just help push Bitcoin to a new all-time high, it also triggered a shift in ETF flows from a neutral regime to a strong inflows regime. Historically, that regime correlates with positive daily returns and tends to persist for several days, sometimes a full trading week. That gives the current rally a strong base of support.

The minutes from the June FOMC meeting show the Fed remains cautious, with the Fed Communication Index holding steady on the hawkish side. They’re flagging emerging inflation risks, including the uncertainty around potential new tariffs. Despite that, projections for two rate cuts this year haven’t changed. As long as the Fed stays the course, that’s not a problem for Bitcoin.