The essence of reversal patterns is that the dominant force of the trend direction is interrupted, and after multiple tests in key support/resistance zones, a turning confirmation is formed. Head and shoulders tops and triple tops both reflect the gradual exhaustion of highs and the failure of upward attacks, ultimately breaking below the neck line; head and shoulders bottoms and triple bottoms, on the other hand, reflect the failure of bears and the transition of bulls from defense to offense after being blocked from breaking down. The effectiveness of these patterns is not due to the shapes themselves, but rather the repeatedly validated price boundaries that serve as decision anchors for capital behavior.

Measuring whether an asset is of high quality should not be limited to the single fiat currency mindset of "how much it rises to in dollars." A truly meaningful assessment is to establish a "value anchor system": Using unit computing power, unit energy, and unit labor to measure the relative value of a Bitcoin; Or simply using BTC as the pricing unit to view the world's depreciation and scarcity from a different perspective. When you switch the pricing anchor point, you will find that many so-called "price fluctuations" are actually just illusions caused by the dilution of fiat currency credit.

Seeing more doesn't mean seeing clearly; Seeing far doesn't mean seeing accurately; Seeing accurately doesn't mean being able to do it; Being able to do it doesn't mean being able to earn from it. Today, I was supposed to systematically talk about this topic in the live stream: "Why do I insist on not predicting, yet still manage to make money continuously?" But I had a flat tire in the middle of the national park in Kenya, took two hours to fix the car, and could only say a few brief words. @Mercy_okx So I'll add what I really want to say here: In trading, it’s never about playing a big game, but about setting limited goals and controlling what can be done in the moment. The first step is to admit that you are an ordinary person. Without time advantages, without information advantages, and without the energy to watch the market all day, the only advantage you have is whether you can handle "this current trade" well. Winning is not about seeing the macro rhythm, but about winning through discipline and consistency. It's not about who can see further, but who can focus more on the segment of the market they can control. Listening to news, chasing rhythms, looking for big shots. It seems like "learning," but essentially, it's avoiding facing oneself. The final step is to restrain the impulse of omniscience. Those who can continue to profit ultimately have to give up an illusion: That is, "I should understand everything" and "I need to catch every wave." But the market is inherently unpredictable; the wider your capability circle expands, the higher the probability of making mistakes, and the harder it is to maintain your mindset. Trading is not about proving you can predict the future, but about repeatedly cashing in on what you can control. I myself rely on this mindset, not predicting a bull market, nor waiting for trend confirmation, but betting according to the risk-reward structure I can accept at the moment: Buying Bitcoin at 78k, building a position in Ethereum at 1600–1800, and holding until now. Not because I see further than others, but because I am clearer than my past self: I only do what I can control, avoid fantasies, and do not gamble on omniscience. Finally, I bought some Kenyan handicrafts, and I’ll hold a lottery to give them away to everyone.

Friends, when buying handicrafts in Kenya, no matter how much the boss asks, just start your offer at $1. Don't be timid, it's been tested and proven effective.

These price patterns may seem different, but they are essentially variations of three rhythmic structures: 1. Reversal Structure (Head and Shoulders, Double Tops and Bottoms) Their significance lies not in the shape, but in the "confirmation process"— once the midline (neckline) is broken, it indicates that the rhythm has completed its turn, with the direction shifting from the old force to the new force. 2. Continuation Structure (Bull Flags, Bear Flags) Essentially, this is a consolidation phase after the release of momentum, characterized by time delay + space compression, belonging to a transitional period of "the strong remain strong." They are not a rest; they are a preparation for a leap and must align with the main trend judgment. 3. Converging Structure (Symmetrical Convergence) Prices no longer advance in a straight line along the trend but enter a period of energy compression. The key to success or failure lies not in the shape itself, but in the choice of direction at the end of the convergence: a breakout after convergence indicates a change in trend. Importance ranking of structures: Rhythm > Energy > Shape.

The inverted hammer and shooting star have the same shape but different contexts. The characteristics of the shape are: a smaller body + a significant long upper shadow + a missing or very short lower shadow. This structure itself does not have directionality, but once it appears in a key position, it carries a strong reversal meaning. The inverted hammer appears at the end of a downtrend, representing "failed attempts to push higher," signaling a buyer's counterattack after the exhaustion of bears; the shooting star appears at the end of an uptrend, representing "weakness in pushing higher," signaling a bear's counterattack after the exhaustion of bulls. The significance of market structure is: it is not the candlestick itself that determines the direction, but rather its position that determines the strength of the counterattack. Therefore, what is truly critical is: whether there was a trend before this candlestick appeared, whether there was a continuous rise or fall, and whether it is close to key support and resistance. Once these conditions are met, it is not about looking at the shape, but rather about observing the "break"—who is being broken, and who is weakening.

Trend lines are not meant to connect "lows" but to connect "structural confirmations." Trend lines should fall on meaningful structural points—specifically, the "support points" after a pullback confirmation. They serve as proof of trend continuation and also as the starting point for a potential reversal. Incorrectly drawn trend lines, while "touching the bottom," often fall within intermediate fluctuations, lacking structural confirmation and therefore hold no reference value. Once broken, they will not provide effective signals.

A true breakout is when you stand on it; a false breakout is when you just touch it and turn back. To put it simply, to judge the authenticity of a breakout, it's not about who rushes up first, but who can hold their ground.

Those who can truly stay in the market for the long term do not rely on the win rate of each trade, but on a set of executable, recoverable, and sustainable behavioral frameworks. The "rules" in the image are not behavioral suggestions, but rather "survival guides". The first layer is the strategy boundary. All trades must stem from a clear strategy; otherwise, do not enter the market. If it doesn't make sense before execution, you will likely regret it afterward. The second layer is rhythm control. Daily reviews are necessary, and even on non-trading days, one should maintain observational skills; limiting trading duration is to prevent emotional trading caused by diluted attention. The third layer is resting after a stop-loss, not to alleviate emotions, but to cut off the inertia of "continuous decision-making" (emotional entries); reviewing the past 3 to 5 days helps to regain the cyclical framework of the market, avoiding being swayed by temporary trends. True experts are always in a state of "ready to take the next shot". Trading is not about firing every bullet, but about preserving bullets, choosing the right targets, and selecting the right timing.

When the market enters a resistance zone, it often does not reverse directly, but rather goes through a process of "momentum exhaustion" first. The chart displayed shows a typical three-stage structural deceleration: In the first stage, a large bullish candle pushes the price, indicating that the trend's inertia is still being released; In the second stage, the body of the candle shortens, and although the price continues to reach new highs, the buying strength clearly weakens; In the third stage, the market opens high but lacks strength, leaving an upper shadow, indicating that the bulls have begun to lose power and the willingness to chase prices is insufficient. This is not a confirmation of a top, but it is the first signal before a top appears—not bearish, but a sign to pull back.