I have never seen a content exporter who has achieved success by stepping on others, everyone who is sincerely sharing is worthy of encouragement, if you can't get used to it, you think he is wrong, you can criticize, you can scold, this is your freedom, but this does not mean that you are right, it does not mean that you are more powerful when you belittle others. People who scolded macro dogs in the last cycle, now talk to people about interest rate cuts every day, people who said that data is useless in the last cycle, now talk about the retention of stablecoins every day, and some people say that ETF data is useless, can you please you, it is useless is what you think, and you think it is wrong, you are so awesome, why don't you go to heaven, why didn't Wall Street ask you to be the chief analyst? Respect is the bare minimum, Twitter is a public place, you think useless does not mean that others think useless, some people may be able to find some useful information from different angles, instead of all sharers like to pretend to be big-tailed wolves, some people like to explain things transparently, and understand more about what they don't understand in the speech. I don't know anything about the technical side, so I never dare to point fingers at the technical teachers, but often discuss with the teachers to confirm whether my views are correct, and I don't know anything about metaphysics, but this does not stop me from maintaining communication with the metaphysics teachers, this world is a huge metaphysics. Every day, yin and yang criticize this and that, and see what you posted, it's embarrassing? ?

People were unlucky enough to drink cold water and stuffed their teeth, and finally found the security guard to go in, went to the supermarket to buy some green radish, ready to be eaten, but when washing the radish, it felt a little prickly, and it turned out that it was not a radish when it was a knife 🔪! Why is this not a radish! What is this!! How do I eat according to the account of the radish?

Global Market Dynamics on July 23: 1. Gold and the US dollar both fell, as the easing of trade tensions led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, causing both to weaken. 2. International crude oil prices remain stable around $68, maintaining relative resilience. If the US and Europe continue to impose secondary tariffs on Russian energy, energy prices are unlikely to drop in the short term. 3. The decline in relative safe-haven sentiment is associated with a decrease in demand for the dollar, leading to an increase in US long-term bond yields, with long bond prices slightly falling and demand weakening. 4. The easing of trade tensions has triggered a rise in the stock market; however, with Tesla and Google's earnings reports due to be released after the market closes today, the stock market will remain relatively cautious even with the trade easing. 5. The VIX index continues to fall to around 15.5, reaching a new low since February 1, 2025. Assessment: The signing of the US-Japan trade agreement has led to market expectations that US-EU trade tensions will ease, reducing global market safe-haven sentiment and increasing risk sentiment, resulting in a relatively normal trend.

The agreement on US-Japan tariffs may indicate that the US is nearing the end of its tariff negotiations in the Asia-Pacific region. With Japan secured, South Korea is left "alone and unsupported." What Trump actually needs to do is quite simple: set high tariff targets and then slow down the imposition of tariffs through negotiations, with the aim of opening up the markets of the countries involved in the tariff negotiations. The goal is to turn the US trade deficit into a surplus, and in doing so, the smaller allies will also be "grateful," referring specifically to the Philippines. Japan actually wants to break free from the US to achieve economic independence, but unfortunately, without military sovereignty, economic independence is unattainable. Thus, Shigeru Ishiba has become the scapegoat. Recently, Ishiba's approval ratings have plummeted significantly, mainly due to the rebound of inflation in Japan, leading to a sharp decline in the support rates of the two ruling parties. In this round of trade negotiations, Ishiba stated that Japan sacrificed its agriculture in exchange for a reduction in US tariff quotas, while the 50% tariffs on automobiles and steel still remain. In the future, Japan's inflation is bound to rebound further, posing an even greater threat to the government's rule. Therefore, the best solution may be to use Ishiba as a "sacrifice" to quell public anger. The next focus of negotiations will be on the Asia-Pacific region, including South Korea, Thailand, and India, as well as major allies like Australia and Canada. Besides China, Europe is a key focus of Trump's trade negotiations this time! After all, it is essential for future major US exports.

In fact, it is not difficult to analyze, we are results-oriented, and we can know how Trump chose these countries to collect tariffs From the perspective of "encirclement and suppression" of China in terms of economy and trade: 1. Although the Philippines has great geopolitical friction with China, this is indeed the largest trading partner of the Philippines in trade, and Chinese goods account for 25% of Philippine imports. 2. Brunei, China is its second largest import trading country, and it is friendly to China in terms of diplomatic atmosphere. 3. Moldova, a small country, is the third largest importer in China, but its import quota continues to hit new highs, and its import trend has gradually shifted to China. At the same time, China also trades with it, purchasing wine and agricultural and sideline products, which China does not lack, and imports are only to enhance the trade flow of Moldova. 4. Algeria, needless to say, has been China's largest investor in infrastructure since 20 years ago, and China is also the country's largest trade importer. 5. Iraq, China is its largest trading partner, China buys Iraq's crude oil, and Iraq buys China's electromechanical and automobiles 6. Libya, which is mainly dependent on China for post-war reconstruction, can be regarded as Algeria before it, and the demand for infrastructure in China will increase greatly in the future. From this perspective, Trump's tariff policy is still centered around the theme of China The previous 14 points may have been the first echelon, with high demand for trade with China and quotas, and now it is the second echelon It's just uncertain that now that Trump is imposing tariffs on the second echelon, is it the first echelon that talks smoothly? Or do you choose a country in the lower echelon because it doesn't go well?

July 22 Crypto Comprehensive Daily Report Introduction: Will Powell engage in a "battle of wits" tonight or showcase "Tai Chi skills"? Can Trump's "onslaught" shake Powell or the independence of the Federal Reserve? The earnings report of Coca-Cola before the US stock market opens cannot be ignored. Will this key moment tonight change the trajectory of the market's pullback? Geopolitics 1. Bessent stated that if the US imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil exports, Europe will follow suit. 2. Recently, the Russian military has frequently targeted Ukraine's conscription offices, leading Ukraine to prepare to set up mobile conscription offices. 3. Iran and Russia are conducting a three-day naval exercise in the Caspian Sea. 4. Zelensky stated that a French drone company will establish a drone manufacturing line and anti-drone systems in Ukraine. 5. The German Defense Minister announced that they will purchase five Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine, having already communicated with the US Defense Secretary. 6. The President of the Philippines traveled to Washington to discuss with senior Trump officials, attempting to expand the South China Sea issue. Assessment: This week, the geopolitical focus is on Wednesday's Russia-Ukraine talks and Friday's nuclear negotiations between the UK, France, Germany, and Iran, both taking place in Istanbul. However, judging by the reactions of NATO and EU countries, they seem prepared to continue maintaining the war. Macroeconomic Events 1. Powell will speak at a meeting at 20:30 Beijing time, currently mocked by Trump faction officials as his last speech before resignation. Powell is under immense pressure; it will be interesting to see how he responds. 2. Coca-Cola will release its earnings report before the US stock market opens, showcasing the resilience of consumer spending in the US economy. Attention should be paid to whether the costs of imported caramel, aluminum cans, and PET resin have significantly increased, indicating the impact of tariffs on key consumer goods companies. Assessment: Currently, the market's focus is on Powell's attitude during his speech. Will he yield to grievances? Or will he maintain his independence with ease? My personal expectation is that Powell will likely avoid the issues or insist on his independence, preserving the credibility of the Federal Reserve's independence, and continue to confront Trump. Once he passes the interest rate meeting at the end of this month, Powell's pressure will ease. Furthermore, even if Trump has evidence proving Powell's wrongdoing, initiating impeachment proceedings will be difficult in the short term; it is more about pressuring Powell. The probability of Powell resigning voluntarily is very low. Global Markets 1. Gold has dropped 0.21% today, with prices slightly retreating after reaching 3400. 2. The US dollar index continues to decline, currently around 97. 3. US long-term bond yields are falling, with prices rising, and the 10-year US Treasury yield gradually approaching 4.3%. 4. International crude oil prices remain relatively resilient, around $68.5. If the US and Europe continue to impose secondary tariffs on Russia, crude oil prices are unlikely to fall in the short term. 5. The US stock market is currently maintaining a cautious attitude before the opening, with S&P futures remaining unchanged. 6. The VIX index is at 16.87, in the optimistic range. Assessment: Currently, the performance of the global market feels a bit like the calm before a storm. The unusual movements in gold and US long-term bonds may indicate that some people are taking early hedging positions, while risk assets remain cautiously observant. Market Data: 1. Market capitalization has declined, with BTC's share increasing while ETH and altcoins' shares have decreased. In the short term, the market sentiment is negatively affected by Powell's speech. 2. Trading volume continues to increase, with noticeable turnover in altcoins. 3. On-site retained funds have increased by 400 million, totaling 268 billion in market capitalization. 4. USDT: Official data shows 161.94 billion, an increase of 280 million compared to yesterday, with the Asian market continuing to see capital inflow and increased trading volume. 5. USDC: Data from the website shows a market capitalization increase of 25.8 million, with funds in the US continuing to flow in and trading volume being active. Assessment: Today's market mainly worries about whether Powell will be taken down by Trump, which has led to slight selling concerns in altcoins. There has been a noticeable increase in trading volume from Asian and US funds, ignited by the Powell event. Bitcoin Technical Analysis: A. Market Interpretation 1. The price has continuously risen in the past hour, nearing a breakout range limit, with a clear divergence in the hourly range. 2. The four-hour price is at the resistance position of the upper range, showing strong momentum, with no divergence in the range. 3. The daily price has once again broken through MA7, maintaining an optimistic and strong trend. B. Support and Resistance Support: Short-term reference at 117,000 for 4-hour support, with key support at 113,700. Expand the support range to guard against potential large fluctuations tonight. Resistance: Short-term resistance at 119,000, with key resistance at the previous high of 121,000. If this position breaks through and stabilizes, it may be possible to test new highs. C. Other Indices RSI: 1 hour 63, 4 hours 56, daily 67, all in a strong bullish range. Note that a breakout above 70 in the 1-hour RSI combined with divergence may increase short-term pullback demand. CME: The BTC futures index maintains a 200-point premium over spot, although the spot market shows strong momentum, the demand for bulls in the futures market has weakened. Overall Market Summary Today: 1. The focus tonight is on what information Powell's speech will reveal. Will he continue to stand firm against Trump? Or will he soften and lower interest rates? Or will he submit his resignation? The market is waiting for this news. 2. My personal expectation is that if Powell's position is shaken, it means the independence of the Federal Reserve is compromised, and the weakened dollar credibility will strengthen the rise of de-dollarization assets, primarily gold, followed by BTC. 3. It is important to note that if Powell resigns under threat, the US stock market may experience a significant drop or panic, and BTC may follow with a decline, but then continue to rebound independently of the US stock market. 4. Currently, BTC's data is quite complex, exhibiting risk attributes alongside the characteristics of de-dollarization assets. 5. If Powell's resignation triggers BTC volatility, it may directly interfere with the original daily pullback trend. 6. Tonight's technical analysis weight will slow down; the focus remains on the information revealed in Powell's speech. Trading Strategy: If Powell softens, a rate cut in July may increase, which is favorable. If Powell is forced to resign without systemic risk in the US stock market, it remains favorable for BTC and gold. If Powell continues to stand firm and maintain his independence, it may slow down the trends of gold and BTC, but ETH and altcoins may rebound.