Prediction markets are having a moment, and the rules around them are finally starting to catch up. @PossibltyResult and I write on where prediction markets fit under U.S. derivatives law and why the next set of regulatory decisions really matter for builders. 👇

While founders are moving fast, regulators, courts, and lawmakers are beginning to ask an inevitable question: How do outcome-based markets fit into existing financial law?

Early builders found a workable path under legacy rules: - build an exchange - structure contracts like swaps - clear trades That approach worked (for now). It unlocked retail access and proved prediction markets can operate inside the system.

But that clarity mostly came from founders pushing ahead in a gray zone, not from regulators fully embracing prediction markets. And it is probably not enough if prediction markets are going to reach their full potential.

What happens next turns on key legal and regulatory battlegrounds: - how the CFTC interprets event contracts - whether gaming commissions can regulate sports markets - whether onchain derivatives can serve U.S. users These outcomes will shape what builders can do next.

The good news is that we are at a moment where regulators are signaling a move toward common-sense, durable clarity. Our paper for @variantfund breaks down why this moment matters and what it means for founders today and tomorrow.