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Andrew Neil
Columnist for Daily Mail UK and MailOnline USA. @TimesRadio anchor. Former Chairman of The Spectator, Editor Sunday Times, BBC TV anchor, Chairman Sky TV
I posted a long tweet about per capita GDP this morning.
17 tuntia sitten
Andrew Neil is usually excellent but as everyone is pointing out here, what matters is GDP per capita, and that’s basically stagnant, plus our fiscal position is terrible
49,84K
Now, as promised, on to per capita GDP. This is a more complicated calculation for various technical reasons. But however you cut it, nearly all estimates suggest UK per capita GDP between 2008 (Year of the Crash) and 2025 grew barely at all — at most 5% over 17 years, and perhaps by only 0%. For most of that long period UK per capita GDP has hovered between £37,500 and £38,500 in real terms. A remarkably poor performance, unprecedented in modern times.
The reasons are complex: the long tail of the Crash on an economy over-dependent on financial services, mass migration, which boosted GDP but not per capita GDP, low productivity (esp in the public sector but also because cheap labour used rather than capital investment).
Stagnant per capita GDP, however, is of huge political as well as economic significance. It explains widespread disillusion with Labour and Tories, a general sense nothing works in Britain, that things are not getting better for most people, Brexit (a protest against status quo) and even the rise of Reform (an anti-Tory/Labour vote).
10.8. klo 19.27
Recent UK economic history being rewritten to suit current political agendas. So let’s set out some facts.
Britain’s real GDP grew by 18.7% from the end of 2010 (Q4 2010) to the end of 2019 (Q4 2019). In other words the UK economy grew by almost a fifth in real terms in the 2010-2020 decade, despite the shock of the Great Crash and Brexit and dysfunctional Tory governments. That somewhat undermines the widely promoted myth of a stagnant decade.
From the start of 2020 (Q1 2020) to the start of 2025 (Q1 2025), real GDP grew by 7.0%. So in the past five years the economy has grown markedly more slowly than previous decade. Covid obviously took its toll, including anaemic bounce back from the pandemic doldrums of 2020/21. Brexit uncertainty too. Plus endless Tory shenanigans hardly encouraged confidence. Even so — and despite all that — the UK economy still 7% bigger now than at start of decade.
I know, I know. Per capita GDP growth rate less impressive. That’s partly a consequence of mass immigration and low productivity. The purpose of this post is to counter the widespread perception that the UK has endured a decade and a half of stagnation in GDP growth. It hasn’t.
191,14K
Recent UK economic history being rewritten to suit current political agendas. So let’s set out some facts.
Britain’s real GDP grew by 18.7% from the end of 2010 (Q4 2010) to the end of 2019 (Q4 2019). In other words the UK economy grew by almost a fifth in real terms in the 2010-2020 decade, despite the shock of the Great Crash and Brexit and dysfunctional Tory governments. That somewhat undermines the widely promoted myth of a stagnant decade.
From the start of 2020 (Q1 2020) to the start of 2025 (Q1 2025), real GDP grew by 7.0%. So in the past five years the economy has grown markedly more slowly than previous decade. Covid obviously took its toll, including anaemic bounce back from the pandemic doldrums of 2020/21. Brexit uncertainty too. Plus endless Tory shenanigans hardly encouraged confidence. Even so — and despite all that — the UK economy still 7% bigger now than at start of decade.
I know, I know. Per capita GDP growth rate less impressive. That’s partly a consequence of mass immigration and low productivity. The purpose of this post is to counter the widespread perception that the UK has endured a decade and a half of stagnation in GDP growth. It hasn’t.
600,62K
Sturgeon said she wanted to be judged, above all, by the results of her efforts to eradicate the educational ‘attainment gap’ between children in rich and poor areas.
Six years ago the attainment gap was 16.9 percentage points. This year it is 17.1 percentage points. Even the current consumers of Scotland’s failing school system will be able to work out that’s an increase, not a reduction.
So by her own lights she can be judged a failure.
And let’s not forget that, after almost a decade as First Minister, she left Scotland as far away from independence (always her real political priority) as ever.
10.8. klo 02.13
Now read two extracts from Nicola Sturgeon’s ‘memoirs’. Mind-numbingly banal. And I assume The Times has chosen to extract the ‘juiciest’ bits to get its money’s worth. Not a single revelation of importance so far …
172,95K
Excellent column in today’s Times from Fraser Nelson.
9.8. klo 15.56
“I would make the rather unpopular argument that this is an amazing country and broadly speaking, there has never been a better time to live in it.”
@FraserNelson explores why the right are depicting Britain as lawless, despite progress made in reducing crime.
@ChloeTilley
208,29K
Angela Rayner tells the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee that while the Tories had been wrong about 96 per cent of everything, they were good at focusing on the 4 per cent they got right. Labour, she claimed, was delivering 96 per cent of its agenda but agonising over the remaining 4 per cent.
This is delusional drivel. Both statements are untrue. And if Labour really believes this it will never come out of its current tailspin.
209,84K
In many ways it’s a strange decision (and took two votes of the Bank’s rate setting committee — for the first time ever). The Bank cuts rates even though it’s upped its inflation forecast to 4% by September — twice the level it is mandated to hit — with warnings of continuing inflationary pressures after that.
7.8. klo 19.03
Bank of England cuts benchmark rate to 4% in response to stalling economy. Fifth cut since election.
219,57K
I guess Labour likening Nigel Farage to Jimmy Savile isn’t working. Reform now 12 points ahead. Tories just above extinction level.
7.8. klo 20.42
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 32% (+2)
LAB: 20% (=)
CON: 16% (-1)
LDM: 12% (-1)
GRN: 9% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 6 Aug.
Changes w/ 30 Jul.
327,03K
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