Trump has been very consistent When the treasury secretary was headed between Bessent and Warsh it was even known at that time that Warsh wanted the Fed Chair role That was effectively carved out for a year Both times they deliberately created a sense it could be someone else but resolved the way expected This means Warsh is very aligned to Trump policy thinking but he is not the pushover candidate - same as Bessent - aligned but conservative stewards who temper Trumps aggression Warsh is very anti mismanagement and conservative on QE front limited to only major crisis I think we will initially get cuts but not to the extent people forecast This is not a qe infinity/rates to 0 fed chair it’s one that’s aligned ideologically of a lower base rate that’s a trusted advisor Good chance that bets related to 0-1% interest rates get unwound within few months of his entering aswell as TDS people thinking fed independence is dead bets get unwound aswell - this is not pro the sovereign trade nor the debasement/inflation trade in itself It also tempers the level of weakness one can expect from USD as the interest rate differential won’t be as big as market betters think against foreign currencies in forecast As all candidates were at min aligned on rates structurally lower - this is priced in and honestly it’s neutral for bitcoin and potentially neutral to negative on gold as Warsh isn’t the “they are destroying independence” candidate which takes away from some of the fervour attachment that was along side the central bank buying That’s to say while the main driver was expected to be fed this year I think it’s actually background noise to fiscal policy and mid term elections