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We analyzed the @MetaDAOProject "Fund $META Market Making" decision market. This was MetaDAO’s first team-sponsored proposal with a -3% TWAP threshold.
Here is what we found:
Total volume was $14,626.81. Economically, alignment leaned Pass: 76.07% of volume was Pass-aligned (Pass-Buy + Fail-Sell), versus 23.93% Fail-aligned (Pass-Sell + Fail-Buy).
Participation was limited based on unique wallets. In total, 13 wallets traded in this proposal, compared to 53 (36) unique wallets on average over the last 3 (5) proposals.
So why was there a lack of activity? Let's take a closer look at the market activity…
Trade FQ8g…LP4T:
▪️ 1 trade (5.88% of all trades)
▪️ $7,138.41 volume (48.80% of total volume)
▪️ Traded exclusively Fail-Sell
▪️ Net Pass-aligned, accounting for nearly half of all capital in a single expression
This was the clearest statement of conviction in the market.
Trader 4ARY…f2EQ:
▪️ 2 trades (11.76% of all trades)
▪️ $6,133.72 volume (41.93% of total volume)
▪️ One Fail-Sell and one Pass-Sell
▪️ Approximately net-neutral trades effectively canceled directional exposure
Despite representing over 40% of total volume, this wallet did not materially reinforce either outcome.
Trader 3wH…NuTT:
▪️ 3 trades (17.65% of all trades)
▪️ $930.63 volume (6.36% of total volume)
▪️ Mixed Pass-Buy, Fail-Sell, and Fail-Buy...
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