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Bonk 生態迷因幣展現強韌勢頭
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有消息稱 Pump.fun 計劃 40 億估值發幣,引發市場猜測
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Solana 新代幣發射平臺 Boop.Fun 風頭正勁
我一直擔心我的「找到好的新東西,也就是交易所」的優勢在實時中正在惡化
但我們仍然在將運作中的交易所與虛無產品進行比較,所以在這個元宇宙中仍然有一些潛力。

2025年10月9日
i hate talking explicitly about price action but i don’t see why lighter won’t trace the double zero chart post initial pump
i understand the market opportunity of a DEX with zero fees and grabbing retail traders, i think good product + team etc, but good product != good token
seems that revenue numbers are obfuscated at the moment and the narrative tailwind is that the eth community will bid a L2 + privacy + hyperliquid beta
i think it competes for an exhausted pool of buyers that bought optimism, arbitrum, starknet, so on and so forth and anyone suggesting aster fdv as a comp is a fool
sure fee generation -> buybacks, im sure there will be some amount of burn
you’re still looking at sizable unlocks, no early allocation to public markets, and what seems to be a fairly small community of points farmers who imo are psyoping to pump otc price, as the past few weeks have shown the liquid market has gotten wise with these types of tokens and exhausted by their overvaluations
token can be underpinned by its fundamentals (im sure there will be growth multiples thrown on revenue numbers when they finally come out) but there’s not enough liquid funds willing to baghold someone else’s 100x and it’s extremely difficult to create a beloved token / people have to like you to buy your token
i hope it does well (wagmi) and i bet that lighter opens above $2b fdv with a smaller position on above $4b fdv but i dont see it holding its price for an extended period of time
the case made that its an acquisition target is somewhat reasonable, but i see this as minimum nine months in the future so you can just take a position after price drops
few months of sustained organic retail traction needed given high density of mercenary airdrop farmers before confidence established, even then the token might not trade well
my read is up and then down

只要人們繼續混淆糟糕的項目
和優秀的交易所
我就會繼續做得很好
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