California unsold inventory is now back to levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year. Open question for your speculation: Why now? We know why inventory is climbing in FL, TX, AZ, etc. (migration is way down, fewer buyers moving from the northeast.) But CA has had net negative migration for a long time and inventory stayed low much longer than those other states. What's a good hypothesis about why CA inventory is climbing this year, finally? What is it about 2025?

My gut feeling (completely unsubstantiated) is that the lack of money flowing into residential real estate right now is leaking into speculative assets in some shape or form. At 5M existing home sales there’d be less money going into other asset classes.

Peter Thiel: "If you add more people to the mix and you're not allowed to build more houses because of zoning laws, then prices go up a lot, and it's this incredible wealth transfer from the young and the lower middle class to the upper middle class and the landlords."

Really wild how there are two housing markets now. If you live in the northeast or Midwest, prices are rising, everywhere around you. If you live in the south or west, prices are falling, everywhere around you. And if you live in Florida, the bottom’s falling out.

Miami's pandemic bust

Just like you can too little or too much of certain macros (carbs, protein, fats), you can get too little or too much of certain wavelengths of light (visible, infrared, UV) - Infrared is like protein, most don’t get enough - Visible (blue) is like carbs, most get too much and the low quality - UV is like fats, often demonized, but it is the wrong fat in the wrong context that is bad, just like UV Not perfect metaphor but you get the point