AI is forcing a massive repricing of risk, pushing capital out of software and toward real assets as investors search for the "horse" in markets. 🧵Summary of our latest weekly roundup @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc

The core debate isn’t “AI apocalypse vs productivity boom.” It’s that AI productivity is real and destabilizing. Markets are struggling to price a world where white-collar work, margins, and growth assumptions can change shockingly fast. But this AI acceleration isn’t purely organic. Fiscal spending and yield-curve suppression are subsidizing extreme AI CapEx, shifting costs onto labor and Main Street while amplifying imbalance across sectors.

All this uncertainty is why software multiples are breaking. $IGV isn’t crashing because software business are failing, it’s falling because future cash flows are harder to trust. Elevated multiples don’t survive when disruption risk explodes. This is exactly why capital is rotating decisively. Energy, materials, and industrials are seeing the strongest inflows as investors favor balance sheets, pricing power, and tangible assets over leveraged growth narratives.

@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc At the same time, macro data is quietly improving. Manufacturing indicators, PMIs, employment data, and a surge in tax refunds point to near-term economic reacceleration, even as volatility rises beneath the surface.

@Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Key takeaways: • AI boosts productivity but raises disruption risk • Software faces a structural multiple reset • Policy is amplifying volatility, not dampening it • Real assets benefit from reacceleration + inflation risk • This is a stock picker’s market, not a passive one

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