Have been saying this for some time but a lot of people at the junior level in private equity are slowly coming to the same realization > There was a glut of overhiring done during the late 2020 and 2021 period when deals were happening at record pace > Since the interest rate hikes in 2022, realizations and capital return to LPs have slowed down very materially and has not fully recovered, despite the M&A boom you see at the large cap space in public markets > PE firms are now holding on to PortCos longer in the hopes of a market with stronger appetite for their assets. Rates are, once again, a key driver. Without low rates, you cannot easily refinance the existing debt and flip to a new buyer. It also puts a stop on transactions like dividend recaps, which would otherwise generate liquidity for your funds > This has led to many folks to stick out longer, in the hopes of actually realizing their carry dollars once the fund exits are completed. At the most senior level, people are simply choosing to retire later. At the Principal and VP level, this means less turnover at funds and aslower lateral hiring market > This, in turn, has created a log jam at the junior level, where associates are starting to realize that the promotion pipeline is stuck. Until enough of your MDs and VPs leave the firm, there are no new seats opening up above you > The combination of these factors have exposed the fact that PE is no longer the promise land it once used to be. Carry dollars take longer to realize, promotion pipelines are slow and extremely competitive, and fund returns are not going to be as high as historical levels I suspect all of these issues will eventually flush out as rates normalize lower due to AI-related disinflation, and overall headcount turnover increasing from many Associates leaving the career path in general However, the near term looks bleak for many at the associate and analyst level. The fact that AI is rapidly catching up to complete many of their tasks does not help either, as it could result in further layoffs at the junior level Will be interesting to see how it all plays out