One of the key macro questions at present is how to reconcile accelerating growth and rising unemployment. -Q3 GDP growth 1.1% (QoQ), -Unemployment rate +30 bps. Going back to 1980, this is only the second quarter growth exceeded 1% and UE rose >20 bps.

Q2 1992 was the other quarter. This was a classic "jobless recovery" period following the early-90s recession (LFPR surged as discouraged workers came back to the workforce). It seems a similar dynamic is at work today. Of course, AI is another possible explanation. It is difficult to imagine AI is not playing a key role in holding back hiring plans (i.e. low hire market). In either case (assuming GDP is not aggressively revised down), then productivity is poised to soar (saw that in today's data).