The polymarket story is interesting because it forces you to believe in something. It is probably the first time (after stables) that we see a primitive break through to the mainstream and define a new market category. I was curious to study its numbers, so here's four charts that define what "conviction" could look like. The numbers are interesting because crypto as a sector tends to drop exponential growth-curves, as opposed to compounding ones you see in traditional markets. Let me explain with some data from @tokenterminal Consider the figure for active monthly users. As late as March 2024, that figure was at ~3k. This was in sync with what the platform had in 2022 too. You could write it off as a "stagnant" platform - only to see it grow a 100 times in less than a year. You see such a curve play out on weekly transactions too. When FTX went down, Polymarket was doing close to a thousand transactions each week. That comes to around 150 a day. At peak, that metric was at 750 transactions each week - or a 1000x growth in the course of 9 months. Again, if you had invested in late 2021, you could sit around three years and wonder if the thing grows. I think part of the premia Polymarket commands comes from how much of the sector it dominates. Looking from the pov of on-chain volume, they command close to ~80% of the market-share. In Nov 2022, volume (weekly) was at a little over $500k. At peak, it was at ~1 billion on a single week. It's quite rare to see any metric in the industry grow 2000x over the course of three years. I think as prediction markets embed themselves in more retail facing apps, this figure will only continue to scale. The one metric that stood out strange for me is how much money Polymarket makes on its volume. If cumulative volume is ~$19 billion and a 0.1% charge was incurred, they'd be sitting on close to $19 million in fees. According to TokenTerminal, much of the early day-monetisation came from AMM fees. That fee switch seems to be now switched off. I verified as much from DeFillama too. Unless I'm missing something, the platform has made close to ~4 million in fees in total (probably missing something). At $10 billion valuation, that's a very optimistic forward-leaning valuation but at the same time, it is a category leader so I see why it would be valued as much. Long story short - products in crypto often grow into exponential growth curves after years of flat growth. Much of seed/early stage investing is developing an appetite to sit it out while charts look flat. The inverse also occurs. OpenSea's volume chart have a very different story to say - but for today, we marvel at what Polymarket cooked.