feels like there's so much value to be captured in prediction markets
gambling or no gambling aside, bonding strat has been one of the most successful strategies that whales adopted
consistently ape into markets at 90-99% probability closer to market resolution
stats on Polymarket & Kalshi show that the closer to the market resolving, the higher the accuracy of the prediction
e.g. you size $100k and split them across diff low-risk markets, you net 2-10% ROI per trade
repeat this enough time and you're essentially netting 1000%+ APY on your stables, this is a lot better than lending $100k in AAVE and getting ~5%
the only downside is it still requires domain knowledge + risk management (i.e. filter out markets that could easily flip due to black swans)
wen Defi x prediction vault product for this strat?
Die Strafe für Durchschnittliches war noch nie höher
Die Belohnung für Außergewöhnliches war noch nie größer
Die Mitte ist zusammengebrochen
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