July retail sales came in a tad lighter than expected at 0.5% m/m (consensus 0.6%) but June was revised up to 0.9% from 0.6%. Meanwhile, control group sales (which are a direct input to GDP) beat with a 0.5% gain (cons. 0.4%) and June was also revised up to 0.8% from 0.5% prior. On the surface: steady and solid consumer momentum. Under the hood: a rising share of sales growth is being “paid for” by inflation. Details in the 🧵

A three hour meeting, probably half of it taken up by translation. And then decision to end it, before expanded meeting or working lunch, and separate statements made with no questions taken. Many signs it was a bad meeting.

We have reached the end. What have we become?

This isn’t really a reason for comfort. In fact in our interview with Mary Daly, she said she was inclined to look past any upward pressure on goods from tariffs because services inflation had generally been benign.

This might be the FED chair and you’re bearish ?

It's not a smart move to turn our statistical agencies into partisan propaganda arms. It won't be effective either...if the labor market is deteriorating, you cannot gaslight the populace into feeling like everything is ok b/c the BLS says so... Ultimately, this move just creates confusion for those of us trying to understand the labor market better.