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Mari ☕
ecosystem & growth @espressosys // tech & sports enthusiast
Day 3/5 ~ Unpacking Confirmations
~ How chains model finality, and why your app needs to think probabilistically ~
yesterday, we explored how “confirmation” depends on the chain. Today, let’s unpack how those chains actually model finality, and why your app needs to move beyond a binary view of “confirmed vs not"
Most chains don’t offer a single clean answer. Instead, you’re working with a spectrum:
1. deterministic finality:
chains using BFT-style consensus (e.g. cosms, some alt-DAs), L1 settlement (e.g. ethereu after finality) and most PoS offer hard guarantees - once finalized, a transaction can’t be reverted.
2. probabilistic finality:
pow chains (like bitcoin) and ethereum "pre-finality" offer statistical guarantees. A tx buried 12 blocks deep is unlikely to be reorged - but not impossible. the deeper, the safer.
3. soft signals:
sequencer confirmations, mempool inclusion, builder relays - they’re fast, but carry risk. these signals are useful, but must be treated carefully.
apps often treat these sources equally:
→ “wait X blocks”
→ “trust the sequencer”
→ “check for inclusion”
But that abstraction breaks as soon as you go interop.
A cross-chain app might span:
~ A fast-finality BFT chain
~ An optimistic rollup with 7-day fraud windows
~ An L1 with probabilistic finality
~ A chain with sequencer-only guarantees
your app logic can’t hardcode a one-size-fits-all rule.
you need to ask: “How likely is this tx to revert? And who enforces that?”
==> finality isn’t binary and the tradeoff between speed and security isn’t linear. (multisigs, for example, don’t gain speed or trust.)
→ what you need is programmable, chain-aware confidence == a way to express what “confirmed” means in each context
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Day 1/5 ~ Unpacking Confirmations
In a modular world, confirmation isn’t just finality.
It’s the moment your app decides something’s safe enough to act on - whether that’s showing a balance, sending a message, or kicking off cross-chain logic.
And how you define that, on each chain, directly shapes your UX and security.
→ Wait too long? UX drags.
→ Go too early? You risk re-orgs, broken logic, even lost funds.
as apps go interop by default, getting this right becomes critical.
~ * different chains, latencies, and security models all collide, and apps need to decide when to move.
kicking off a short dive into confirmations 🫡
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actually a barista, bc we’re brewing ☕️
gespresso

Mari ☕16.7. klo 00.41
not a chef, but we're cooking 👩🍳
gbrew
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