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Naval’s right. But this isn’t a prediction. It already happened.
76 million Americans freelance today. That’s 36% of the workforce. By late 2026, freelancers are expected to represent roughly 48.5% of the total U.S. workforce, nearing a majority projected for 2027.
The earnings tell the real story. 5.6 million independent workers now earn over $100,000 annually, up 87% from 3 million in 2020. U.S. skilled knowledge freelancers collectively earned roughly $1.5 trillion in 2024. A parallel economy running alongside traditional employment, growing faster every quarter.
The split is happening along skill lines. Freelancers with AI and prompt engineering skills are commanding a 56% wage premium over traditional roles (per Demandsage). Freelancers are 2.2 times more likely to use generative AI in their work than traditional employees (per Upwork). The people who left the career ladder first are now the ones best positioned on the AI curve.
Naval is describing what already played out: the 20th century model of trading 40 years of loyalty for a pension and a gold watch collapsed a decade ago. A marketplace replaced it, one where your specific knowledge compounds faster than your tenure at any single company ever could.
Going independent used to be the risk. Now the risk looks more like staying in a system that can RIF your entire division in a Thursday email and call it “restructuring.”
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