Great lesson here. • "Major bottoms showed extreme fear" (okay, sure) • "Extreme fear signals a major bottom" (completely unproven by this data) Those are two completely different claims. The first is almost trivially true. But the second is the only one that would be actionable, and it's the one not being addressed. • "Every time it rained, the ground was wet" (trivially true) • "Every time the ground was wet, it had rained" (not necessarily true, sprinklers exist) You can't learn anything about predictive power this way because you've excluded all the cases where the same predictor appeared but the preferred outcome didn't happen.