The headline jobs numbers are almost uniformly weak. I would discount some due to shutdown and Federal retirements. But only some. 41K jobs added in Oct & Nov 4.6% unemployment rate in Nov, up from 4.4% in Sep Private wage growth slowed Labor force participation rose

Here is why you should discount the headline jobs numbers some, the pace of private-sector job growth held up and--in fact--picked up over the last three months. Note these are basically all healthcare and social assistance--with everything else netting to about zero.

And the flip side of this, 168K Federal jobs lost over the last three months. That is the most in any three month period not counting Census years.

The particular concern is the unemployment rate which is now at 4.6%. It has been steadily rising since mid-2023 and the pace of the rise may have picked up, with the caveat of uncertainty about how much this has to do with absorbing the retiring federal workers.

On the good news side, the participation rate rose and that kept the prime-age employment rate largely steady (down 0.1pp from September).

Average hours up.

Wage growth slowed for all private workers but held strong if you exclude managers and just look at production and non-supervisory wages.

Overall, a lot of reason for dreadful foreboding. But also an unusually large amount of uncertainty about how to interpret all of this. It is always tempting to say it will all be clear with another month's data. But in this case it will be genuinely clearer.