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The question isn't whether we are in a bear trend or not
It's how long it lasts and how deep it goes
My guess is time & depth is shortened
And if time isn't, depth is


Nov 17, 23:12
Deeper reflection about the road ahead (read along):
All I see now is everyone talking about the "bear market"
Have we asked what a bear market even is in this day and age?
95% of alts have been in bear market since 2022
Why would the ending be the same if the beginning was completely different than we have ever seen?
2017: Quick and parabolic - ridiculous gains across the board - every single alt did 10X multiples - retail driven
2021: Quick and parabolic - rapid repricing of assets due to printing 20% of total money supply - every alt did 10x multiples - retail/inflation driven
What caused the last 2 bear markets? Precisely the two points above. When an asset expands without building structure throughout the journey, it doesn't sustain! When an asset grows due to retail speculation - it often falls as fast as it rose.
2024: Slow and steady - Staircase growth - tiny parabolic sections that were retraced soon after - 95% alts did nothing - no money printing - driven by institutional bids "parked money" (stock market like) - no hype that lasted, small retail participation beyond memes (which already are vaporized). This is precisely why retail sentiment has been in the gutter all cycle.
Do you see the difference?
So many are trying to predict the road ahead, while looking in the rear view, ignoring that this road is a road we never traveled.
The "construction" of this growth has been one we've never seen. Much more stable, much more focus on the foundation. Why would the building collapse as much as it has in the past?
It might, but I'd say the odds don't favor that.

We can see 30 day vol is no where near the levels of the last two cycles
Drawdown from ATH is also an interesting metric to view


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