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A questão não é se estamos numa tendência de baixa ou não
É quanto tempo dura e quão profunda é
O meu palpite é que o tempo e a profundidade são encurtados
E se o tempo não for, a profundidade é


17/11/2025
Deeper reflection about the road ahead (read along):
All I see now is everyone talking about the "bear market"
Have we asked what a bear market even is in this day and age?
95% of alts have been in bear market since 2022
Why would the ending be the same if the beginning was completely different than we have ever seen?
2017: Quick and parabolic - ridiculous gains across the board - every single alt did 10X multiples - retail driven
2021: Quick and parabolic - rapid repricing of assets due to printing 20% of total money supply - every alt did 10x multiples - retail/inflation driven
What caused the last 2 bear markets? Precisely the two points above. When an asset expands without building structure throughout the journey, it doesn't sustain! When an asset grows due to retail speculation - it often falls as fast as it rose.
2024: Slow and steady - Staircase growth - tiny parabolic sections that were retraced soon after - 95% alts did nothing - no money printing - driven by institutional bids "parked money" (stock market like) - no hype that lasted, small retail participation beyond memes (which already are vaporized). This is precisely why retail sentiment has been in the gutter all cycle.
Do you see the difference?
So many are trying to predict the road ahead, while looking in the rear view, ignoring that this road is a road we never traveled.
The "construction" of this growth has been one we've never seen. Much more stable, much more focus on the foundation. Why would the building collapse as much as it has in the past?
It might, but I'd say the odds don't favor that.

Podemos ver que o volume de 30 dias não está nem perto dos níveis dos últimos dois ciclos
A queda em relação ao ATH também é uma métrica interessante a considerar


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