1/ Is Plasma the onchain stablecoin beta? Key takeaways from my latest @MessariCrypto report: With Plasma’s XPL public sale tomorrow, here’s how we’re thinking about the product. Thread 🧵

2/ Plasma is launching a stablecoin-focused chain, but do users actually want one? TRON still hosts 50% of USDT despite higher fees, suggesting cost alone doesn’t drive behavior. Distribution > infrastructure when it comes to stablecoin adoption.

3/ Plasma’s alternative path to relevance may be as a Bitcoin sidechain. It’s launching with $1B in stablecoin liquidity, 10x more than all other BTC sidechains combined. That’s likely enough to bootstrap lending, Bitcoin’s main offchain use case.

4/ But Plasma doesn’t solve the core trust problem. Like other sidechains, it relies on external validators and periodic Bitcoin anchoring, models that many Bitcoiners have historically rejected. That could cap adoption despite the liquidity.

5/ Since the Circle IPO, the on-chain has lacked a clear stablecoin proxy. Plasma, stablecoin-native and backed by Paolo and Bitfinex, could fill that void. It may trade as a Tether-adjacent narrative, even if the product itself never finds real usage.