This week's DDHQ newsletter: -Which blue seats could the GOP flip to keep the House? Best targets are in red states that redistricted. -Which red seats could Democrats flip to make a blue wave happen? Some Trump-won, medium-red seats could be in play in 2026.

2026 House battle depends on how well: -Democrats target 26 in-play GOP-held seats -GOP pursue 20 competitive Dem-held seats. But a "blue wave" could also swamp 19 peripherally competitive red seats. Read more:

If Republicans want to maintain their slim House majority, they will need to make a play for many of the 20 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats on the map. Of these, 12 voted at least narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2024. More here:

Redistricting gave GOP most of its best targets: -Worse-off incumbents seeking reelection are Davis (NC) & Kaptur (OH). -Latino shifts and local strength could help Cuellar & Gonzalez survive in TX -Landsman's OH seat shifted most to right but least red.

Top GOP target that wasn't redistricted is ME-02, where 4-term Rep. Jared Golden (D) is retiring. Trump +9 seat, ex-Gov. Paul LePage (R) likely favored to win. Golden narrowly won in 2024, had to run far ahead of Dem baseline in district. Read more:

GOP also targeting seats Trump narrowly won/lost. But any that leaned left of Trump's +1.5 nat'l pop vote edge will be tough. President's party has flipped seats like that just 3 times in 6 midterms in the 21st century. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) in 2022 only recent example.

In Part 2 of our series on the House, we talked about the 26 GOP-held seats that Democrats can best target in 2026 to win a majority. But if 2026 turns out to be a "blue wave," 19 other medium-red seats could come into play for Democrats. Read more:

GOP remains favored in all of these seats, especially 12 below the line in the table — all leaned 10-20 points to the right of the country in 2024. In midterms 2006-2022, opposition party only won 11% of seats like that. Read more:

Democrats' best hopes may be in TX, where combination of potential Latino swing back to the left in TX-15 & TX-35 + a possibly weak GOP nominee in TX-23 could give them a real shot. Read more:

There's a whole lot more in the article, so please give it a read! And please subscribe to our Substack to receive our weekly newsletter in your inbox every Monday morning!