Our Chief Elections Analyst @geoffreyvs joins @galendruke podcast to with an early look at what seats will be in play what the implications are for House control in 2026

President Trump’s approval rating has fallen this week, reversing nearly all of the ground he gained last week. The Democratic and Republican Party both see considerable losses in favorability this week, though the Republican Party still holds a net favorability rating 5.5 points higher than their Democratic counterpart. 7-day change in averages: 🟠Presidential Disapproval +3.4% 🟢Trump Favorable +0.5% 🟢Vance Favorable +2.3% 🟢Musk Favorable +3.3% 🟣Schumer Unfavorable +3.9% 🟣Democratic Party Unfavorable +6.3% 🟣Republican Party Unfavorable +4.1% 🟤Wrong Track +1.7% You can follow the polling movement, including candidate favorability of NYC mayoral candidates, on our website.

Democrat Catelin Drey wins the IA-01 State Senate Special and flips the seat blue. This win breaks the Republican supermajority in the Iowa State Senate.