We’re about to witness three of the largest IPOs in history. SpaceX is targeting $1.5t. OpenAI aims for $1t. Anthropic is valued at $380b. Combined, $2.9t in market cap. The scale is unprecedented. But the real problem isn’t the market cap. It’s the float. Typical IPOs offer 15-25% of their shares to public markets. This creates enough liquidity for price discovery while allowing founders & early investors to maintain control. Facebook floated 15%. Google floated 19%. Alibaba floated 15%. At a 15% float, here’s what these three IPOs would require :

At standard float percentages, these three companies would need to raise $432-576b from public markets in a single quarter. From 2016 to 2025, the entire US IPO market raised $469b.

It’s like throwing a boulder into a pond. Standard floats are impossible, so these companies will debut with tiny ones, likely 3-8%. But that creates a different problem. The S&P 500 requires 50% public float for inclusion. At 3-8%, none qualify initially. When they do, the disruption begins. Source : Yahoo Finance