the age old thing about crypto is to rush to sell a “wouldnt it be nice if” with very vague (more marketing) goals, without putting the “how” pieces together. this is now playing out across an imagined prediction market spectrum

there’s a few types of builders. but two that are polar opposite are the ones that have an idea and so figure out how to make it real (all the things that enable the outcome), and the ones that deploy a version of it to capture the narrative alone

atm the big thing is that even objective truth isn’t (yet) objectively settleable, but subjective truth certainly isn’t - at the same time, extrapolating *any* surface data doesn’t work; just creates an arb - no social consensus model works - and binary markets rely on settlement

remove money and have it just for fun works, but then you have to build for a userbase that will actually use the thing rather than pretend something will onboard the world of people who don’t relate to any of the underlying drivers/ dynamic