The market looks more bearish than I expected. If this continues, Bitcoin probably will not see a strong recovery for the next 3–6 months. The real bull rally would begin once liquidity returns next year. Macro liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle. Dollar liquidity is tightening, risk assets are being sold, and this trend will likely continue until liquidity eases next year. Both market and on-chain data show weak liquidity for now. I have also mentioned that the on-chain bull cycle ended under the classic cycle theory. We could still see a sharp bounce to around 100K, but if that level does not break, another lower low becomes likely. I'm not a macro expert. I know the basics, but my focus is on Bitcoin on-chain data, so I rely on skilled macro analysts. Among them, I pay the closest attention to @LukeGromen . He argues that the US fiscal deficit is too large and foreign demand for Treasuries has weakened. Without fresh liquidity, the Treasury market becomes unstable. Once liquidity returns next year, scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher. My view is still aligned with his view.