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The 3-year growth rate is mainly determined by policy.
The 20-year growth rate is mainly determined by science and technology.
The 100-year growth rate is mainly determined by policy.
Oct 20, 2025
Growth is basically about science and technology, not primarily about economics. Markets are good at allocating the resources we have. Expanding the frontier of stuff we have is still more or less black magic
On a 100-year time horizon, the best thing for growth is free, interconnected markets, where new ideas spread and find seed far and wide, and where a huge market ensures that process improvements and discoveries have high returns.
Science and technology don't come out of nowhere.
You need vast scientific networks, so a U.S. inventor can pick up and tweak something from a Chinese journal article and make something new.
And then you need big open markets, so it's worth spending $1 billion to improve a product by 0.1%, again and again and again.
We've known this at least since 1764, but I guess every so often we need to blow up our economy in order to learn it again
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