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I don't think AI will be nationalized, because frontier AI looks like it's developing into a marginal-cost rather than fixed-cost technology
Marginal-cost technologies are very amenable to free markets and competition. State coordination helps much more in high fixed-cost techs
Oct 13, 23:09
I'm not ready to stake my reputation on the prediction that frontier AI is going to be nationalized in the next decade, but:
"... so there's an industry cluster spending trillions on a technology with huge geopolitical consequences *and* military applications for which the Pentagon might want stricter oversight, oh and ALSO the whole thing is maybe a bubble whose popping could have significant macroeconomic effects that the govt might want to soften by bailing out the most important affected firms ... "
... sure sounds like the prelude to some kind of bailout and/or partial nationalization to me
A simple comparison:
- Trains are basically a fixed-cost technology: these are generally public or pseudo-public
- Planes are basically a marginal-cost technology: these are run very well by private markets almost everywhere
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